SteynOnline

PRIMARY POSTBAG
A selection of the many letters we have received on Mark’s posts and articles on the Primary: “Agent of Change”; Campaign 2008 – the new Conservatism;  On to Florida
and Barbarians in the backyard

NUTS
I’ve always admired you but have you gone nuts!   Mitt killed McCain in MI and NV and is the only person who can stop that amnesty loving nutso McCain. Rudy lost to Ron Paul.

BBJAAA

NOT CONVINCING AT ALL
”After tonight, you would have to think McCain is on course to be the Nominee…” (“On to Florida”).

Your note is not convincing at all. McCain is the opposite of a  “national candidacy”. He cherry-picked “wins” in two states, while not even bothering to compete in others. He finished behind Ron Paul today in Nevada, and “won” South Carolina by a few points, with just 1/3 of the vote, based on Democratic cross-overs.

I noticed you didn’t even mention Romney. He has won two states by a large margin, and leads in delegates. He has run a truly national campaign, competing in all the states.

The only thing McCain has going for him is spin from the media who support him. No matter how much McCain supporters fantasize it, conservatives will fight him all the way to the convention, and not vote Republican in November if McCain somehow gets the nomination.

Russell Van Zandt

ONE RINO’S ENOUGH
By now you've surely received a gadzillion emails like mine, but I'll add mine anyway. If McCain is the nominee, this conservative would crawl on his hands and knees over a hundred yards of broken glass just to lick the boots of the last guy who crawled over a hundred yards of broken glass to vote against McCain.
  
Sorry, Bush the RINO has been quite enough for me.  I'll take my chances with a democrat for president.  If the GOP can't get its act together two years later, its all over anyway.
  
Jesse Cole
Butte, Montana

MCCAIN IS A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE
I am disappointed that you have joined those reluctantly crowning McCain as the GOP nominee.  As for competing everywhere, you have forgotten that Romney, as weak as he is, has competed in every state... even to the tune of ponying up $4 million in SC TV ads.  He has won three states... although the press only give him credit for 1/2 a win due to his favorite son status in Michigan and zero credit for running unopposed in Wyoming and Nevada or coming in an extremely strong second in Iowa and New Hampshire.  At least he did something in those states.  The McCain you so idolize in your post dissed both western states.

Tell enough people that the only guy is McCain and they will through in the towel just like you.  I've seen it happen now with a number of conservative pundits.  "McCain is the only one electable, so you have no choice but to vote for him". Sounds like Gore and global warming's  settled science to me.

McCain is a terrible candidate.  His temperament and ego disqualify him before you consider his dismal record in the Senate of when it counts, poking the GOP in the eye.

Disgusting.  I'm almost sorry I finished America Alone... but I'm not, it was a great read.

Ken Cassell
Salt Lake City, UT (yes... Utah)

INSIGNIFICANT LEVELS OF SUPPORT
I'm deeply confused by your claim that McCain competed in all the races, not writing off any of them. Did McCain not write off Wyoming? How about Nevada, a state bordering on his home state? His loss in Iowa may have been a "principled" loss, but where Romney has come first in 3 races, second in two, both respectably so, and fourth in one, McCain has regularly found himself at insignificant levels of support. Fewer wins, fewer seconds, and some complete failures. K.Lo reminded us that the Romney-McCain delegate score is 72-32. If McCain was running in all the states where he was brutally demolished, how the heck has Romney shown an inability to stop him? Do you feel that McCain has shown any ability to stop Mitt?

McCain's is a "National" campaign that has failed in every state not on the coast of the Atlantic. After watching Mitt defeat all comers for White Evangelicals, for Veterans, for People Who Consider Terrorism The Biggest Concern and every other conceivable ideological or identity based demographic in Nevada, who can you say he wrote off? There is, incidentally, one voter demographic that McCain has not won once this race: Republicans (this isn't just hyperbole, it's actually true).

James Spiller

The English Romney supporter who met you at the National Review Conservative Summit and the more recent Manchester, NH, thing.

MCCAIN CAN GO TO HELL
Exactly what are our young soldiers fighting and dying for in Iraq and Afghanistan? Freedom? Can there be Freedom without limited, constitutional government? Can the be limited, constitutional government if our rulers are not bound by the Constitution?

I will not vote for McCain. McCain-Feingold subverted the Constitution and McCain can go to hell. But what the hell, my vote is meaningless. Here in the no longer Free State of Maryland there is no organized opposition to the Democrat scum. Hell, thanks to traitorous bastards like Bush and McCain is there any organized opposition to the Democrat scum anywhere? The Reagan coalition has been lost in the Bushes and there will be hell to pay.

What city do you think good Muslims will nuke first?

Ralph Diamond
Annapolis, Maryland

CONRAD’S SUPPORTING JOHN
I always have compassion for a man who is vilified by the masses, and keep him in my prayers long after the paparazzi has torn him apart....so I was moved today when I saw Conrad Black's piece speaking of John McCain being the best choice for the race to be president...

Through his long ordeal, may Conrad black find grace and kindness

January 15, 2008

"Mr. McCain, an authentic hero...is in the best of the military-political tradition of integrity. He doesn't speak in clichés or adjust his views for the fluctuating polls, and he does have a sense of humor...At this early point, if the office, in a phrase from Washington's time, is seeking anyone... it is John McCain." Lord Black

Shane Mattison
                   
BOTTOMING OUT
Like a drunk, the Republican Party has to hit bottom before it can come back.

Little does it matter if McCain, Clinton, or Obama is elected - liberals will be in total control of the federal government.  As a result, creeping socialism, fueled by weak immigration control, portends the end of traditional conservatism.

Frank

DOLE’S MY COMEBACK KID
I agree with Mr Graham but your come-back description is very funny, and perhaps exceptionally accurate. (Sadly, as was Bob Dole as a candidate)Dole got my vote, McCain NEVER will
 
Roger Ross
Tomahawk, Wisconsin

A GREAT CANDIDATE FOR THE DEMS
McC would be a great candidate - for the other party.

He has done a remarkable job at screwing up most of Jorge's initiatives (judges, taxes, "torture", etc.) whilst trashing the 1st and maintaining our open borders.

Iffen he's the best that the GOP can do, let it continue to rot.

I'll go fishing.

Tim Lusk

HE UPHELD THE SURGE
First I am a big fan and my wife and I both read America Alone.  I also – sorry loaned out my copy a few times to friends because I thought it was that important. Anyways I listened to you an Hugh get after McCain again tonight on my way home from work.  But my Weekly Standard (10 + year subscriber to NRODT) arrived today and over a Stroh's I read the article explaining the absolutely critical role McCain played in keeping Republicans from caving to Reid and company this past summer in their efforts to  de-funding the Surge. 

This strikes my as real leadership and is why I'm voting McCain despite all the standard conservative disagreements I have with him.

If you’re ever in Cleveland drop me an email; dinner and beers are on me.

Take care,

Brian Andrews
Lakewood, Ohio

CHICKEN?
Appreciated your analysis. If Romney is a top conservative candidate, why did he run away from South Carolina?

JKGPSU

MONEY TALKS
Referring to Michael Graham's post where he rebuts you by noting that  the top two Rs (including Romney) "aren't even running" in SC, I’d  note this news story that shows that Romney ran nearly 50% of all the  GOP ads in SC, and 3x the number that McCain ran.

I recognize that there are other ways to spend money, but I'd bet that direct  mail/organization etc .... were probably just as lopsided.

Scott

ROMNEY WILL WIN
Romney will win Florida and the election as he's the most electable conservative running unifying the base.  Thompson will drop out helping Romney while McCain, Huckabee, and Giuliani divide the  liberal/moderate GOP wing.

Huckabee will make it harder for Romney due to his cultural conservatism but Romney will be seen as most electable.  Romney  wants a one on one with McCain, or anyone, and will defeat anyone head to  head.
 
Bill
Andover, Massachusetts

DOLE REDIVIVUS
In the Corner you noted that it feels like 1996 all over again. I couldn't agree more.

In the local pundit circle (read: my friends over gin martinis) we all agree that McCain is Dole redivivus: the too old war hero whose turn it is, who has major problems with the base. I just don't think an open borders guy like McCain who believes he can stop climate change by picking my pocket has a chance of beating out the Democrats: why not go for the exciting prospect of voting for Hillary or Obama given that they have the same policies as McCain on these central issues? (and will surely be coming to the center on Iraq after the nomination). And no - I just don't buy into the polls at this early stage that purport to tell us how McCain or Romney or so and so will do against the democratic field.

So, we're doomed. McCain will get the nomination, the GOP will be enervated, and he'll and go down in an electoral college landslide to the First Black or First Woman president.

Pr. H. R. Curtis
Trinity Lutheran Church, Worden, Illinois
Zion Lutheran Church, Carpenter, Illinois

WISHFUL THINKING
I think you are engaging in wishful thinking...if you think a McCain win in SC is good for Giuliani.

If McCain loses, it's still a very open race. If he wins, it's a clear sign the voters are gathering around him.

Go to pollster.com and you'll see that, outside of the Romney threat in Florida, McCain is his main danger in the big states he's betting on, like California and New Jersey. Hell, McCain is closing in on Giuliani in New York itself.

If Giuliani can't win in New York, it's over for him.

You might be right for Republicans like yourself that, if McCain wins SC the battle cry is, "Stop McCain," but not for Giuliani. That became his greatest need after New Hampshire, and McCain winning in SC just makes that so much less likely.

Daniel Elmore

WHAT’S WITH THE SNOTTINESS?
I am a conservative by nature (i.e. I don't like government) and an evil born-again Christian. Just wanted to say it up front.  While I am not entirely convinced that I want Huck to be President, I am disturbed now to see the "right wing" become more and more snotty about anyone who is a Christian.  For years, we've had to put up with liberals who brand us all as trailor dwelling idiots.  I've learned to just roll my eyes at them - but, now commentators like you are acting just like them (although you are definitely smarter and more articulate than they).  Come on...give it a rest.

C. Johnson
Boise, Idaho

YOU’RE AN ESTABLISHMENT HACK
It's good to see you doing your part in ignoring Ron Paul.  After all, why mention him?  He only came in second in Nevada and has consistently beat Giuliani and Thompson in earlier primaries.  What an establishment hack you are.

John McKerrow
Hamilton

MARK REPLIES: I haven't ignored him. I've explained repeatedly - most recently on the radio last Thursday - that, while I support his wish for small and constitutional government at home, his isolationism is seductive but utterly absurd. This is a nation that cannot even enforce its own borders against two relatively benign neighbors, and Mr Paul proposes to hold the entire planet at bay? Dream on. Half the population of Mexico has crossed the southern border, and all the bad Canadian ideas have crossed the northern border (socialized health care, multiculturalism). A 19th century republic living in splendid isolation is a delusion that will complete the transformation of America into a Hispanic nation ruled by Canadian ideas.

And the reason I didn't mention him in my "On To Florida" post is because he's not going to be the nominee.

HUCKABEE, SNAKE-OIL SALESMAN
To the esteemed Mr. Steyn:

As he says he can fix everything but never offers specifics as to how (other than those shamelessly lifted from people like Boortz and Krikorian), as he answers specific questions with obfuscation made palpable by slick humor, as he either runs from his record or distorts the results of it, I present to you that Mike Huckabee is the equivalent of the elixir salesman Clint Eastwood spits tobaccee juice on in "The Outlaw Josey Wales."

He's the salesman, and his record/platform is the snake oil.

What do you think?

Lastly, it is my opinion that Fred should put a big chaw in his mouth, walk up to Huckabee, ask him about the benefits of Metamucil (since Huckabee would know more than most as he most assuredly employed it's use frequently during his rapid weight loss exercise), and after he's heard enough of the little man's ramblings about Holiday Inn Expresses and flagpoles and Chuck Norris' hairpieces and such, he should simply fire a good stream of tobaccee juice smack-dab on Huckabee's lapel and ask: "How is it with stains?"

It would be just deserved, and Fred would win in a landslide.

Again, your thoughts?

Atmmgraves

ARE YOU KIDDING?
You have to be kidding yourself when you say that Mitt is out. He obviously has the most delegates in the contests and made a smart move by focusing on Nevada which had more delegates. He put a lot of money in S.C.,  Iowa,  and N.H. but because of the bigotry of many of the southern Baptist he had no chance (he is an evil mormon and is going to hell). If you think Giuliani has the only chance of ABM you are fooling yourself for the candidate who had the most going for him into the election cycle he has totally flopped. The real race now is between Mitt and McCain. Obviously Mitt has the most experience outside of Washington and has solved real world problems. Whatever you think of him due to his flip flops you have to give it to him he is a renowned problem solver.

Sondra Brown

EVERYONE’S SECOND CHOICE
I think that a continued split of the primary states helps Romney.  Most of us have people we really do not want to get the election (e.g. Huck, and for me, to a lesser extent, McCain), but hardly anyone is on the Stop Romney train.  He seems like every non-Romney guy's second or third choice.

The longer things look uncertain, the more people will worry about fracturing the party, the more people will gravitate to a candidate nobody really dislikes.

Also, how sure are we that evangelicals actually want Huck to be President?  Isn't it possible he's just the 'stop-ignoring-us' candidate?

 James Eckert

ABANDONING CONSERVATISM
For what it's worth, I agree with your other correspondents. Your magazine chose an economic planner who favors national health care mandates, and who USED to be a social liberal, over a Reagan conservative. Who will defend conservatism when Republicans abandon it?

Jacob Lyles

SHAME
Fred's the candidate of my dreams.  A TRUE conservative.  History will note that National Review didn't step up to the plate to support him.  Both you and Bill Buckley should be ashamed.

Pat BogganILL-EQUIPPED
Put more succinctly, perhaps more Guiliani-esque, Rudy brought a knife to a gun fight.  Thanks.

Greg Bowden

RUDY JUST HAS TO WIN FLORIDA
As quickly as Rudy's lead has slipped in NY, CT, and NJ, it could come back in force if he wins FL.  Currently here are some factors in Rudy's favor:

1.        Many who are going to vote for Rudy already voted (i.e. early voting in Florida)
2.        Rudy's ground game is more established in Florida
3.        Rudy is going to get some attention now he is in the race
4.        Thompson's support will likely go away as he exits stage right.
5.        Rush Limbaugh has started to say nice things about Rudy.  In Rush's view choose Rudy or Romney. 
6.        Rasmussen Poll has it a dog race with McCain only a few points in front.

If Rudy wins Florida, the momentum swing is going to be huge.  Look the GOP does not Like McCain.  McCain is winning because:

1.        People don't think Romney can win
2.        Thompson's campaign never got going. 
3.        Rudy's early strategy. 

Simply put the GOP does not like McCain.  Rudy will go after McCain you can bet on that.  Also look for Thompson votes to go either Rudy or Romney's way.  If Rudy wins it is going to be a shock and awe.  He will be in the lead in delegates and probably win NY, NJ, and CT and place well in a bunch of others.  If it comes down to Rudy or McCain Rudy is going to win this thing.  The only wild card is how long Romney stays in.  On the other hand the reverse may be true regarding how long will Rudy take votes from Romney.  Bottom line is the GOP is going to be pro
and anti- McCain and the Anti's are going to win.

While the strategy can be questioned (i.e. Rudy should be doing better than he is), lets see what happens in Florida first.  I thought Limbaugh's remarks on Rudy today reflect where the GOP base is going to go.  Rudy might be pro-life but he said he will appoint conservative judges and unlike McCain Rudy can be trusted to do what he says.

Don't jump of the Rudy wagon yet!

Laurence Wagman

NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING
 No, I don't mean that he's trashing other candidates.  For Rudy, "negative campaigning" describes how his numbers invariably go down when he campaigns before a particular electorate.
  
You were right all along, and I imagine that a lot of the people who totally misread the mindset of New York-area voters (such as Rudy's campaign) were New Yorkers themselves. 

No, New Yorkers aren't necessarily going to rule out a candidate because he finished fourth in Iowa or third in New Hampshire.  However, even negative buzz is better than having your face on a milk carton. 
  
Don Rohan
  
REGROUP BEHIND ROMNEY
Giuliani hasn't TRIED to stop McCain in any contested states so far - Romney and Thompson have really split the conservative votes.  If Thompson drops out(no wins so far), then conservatives might coalesce behind Romney. I like Giuliani, but he has too much personal baggage.

L McClure99

I’M A GENIUS (MAYBE)
Mark, if your plausible Rudy scenario plays out, and he wins Florida and beyond, I hope you'll allow me a little chuckle...of the smart-ass variety.  Of Rudy, you write, " ...we'll have to acknowledge that he's a towering genius.."

Would that qualify me as a "sitting" genius ?  You see, I WAS seated on Jan 11 when I wrote you a note headed:   " You're Mark Steyn...and you'll disapprove of this message".  In my note I said that while things looked bleak for Rudy, I saw him "..as a strong Derby horse sitting last after the first turn".   In other words, I had not given up on my earlier prediction of a Rudy win (last Fall, I think).

Now I feel the pressure...but I can handle it. (If Rudy and I DO win, I would really appreciate you taking your entire team out to a terrific lunch...after which you could take out yr cell-phone and call me up (1-450-464-5768) and all of you together sing to me "For He's A Jolly Good Corrie"  (and please make sure whatsername isn't just mouthin' da woids).

John Gross
Beloeil, Quebec

BRILLIANT STRATEGY?
Great point about Rudy. I had been thinking that if Rudy wins the nomination, given where he is now, then he will have been a brilliant  strategist. That would be someone we need as president.

Barry Dauphin

I DON’T GET IT
Just read your 'McMentum vs. Huckmentum' post on the Corner and I say I have to disagree totally with your assertion that Mayor Giuliani will be the one conservatives might coalesce around to stop Sen. McCain in Florida should he win this evening in South Carolina.  I don't find any logic in Mayor Giuliani being that person.  Presumably those who wish to stop Sen. McCain do so because of his inconsistent or maverick Conservatism.  Why then would they coalesce around Mayor Giuliani, whose conservatism is also, to put it kindly, inconsistent?
 
No I believe that it is the most viable candidate of traditional conservative dispositions who conservatives would flock to beat Sen. McCain, probably Gov. Romney (though his conservatism by no means has not been put into question during this campaign).
 
Geoff Smock

SO WHAT?
If Rudy wins in Florida Then I still don't see where that leads. Rudy represents the coastal California, New York-New Jersey, Mel Martenez wing of the GOP. Are the people at National Review REALLY under the impression that this is what the average Republican around the country is hankering for?

Jono2112

CAN YOU MOBILIZE MORMONS?
What irritates me most about press coverage of Mormon turnout in Nevada is that identity politics of the kind used by Huckabee among evangelicals are not possible among Mormons.  I'd like CNN, Politico and others to report how Mormon democrats voted in Nevada.  Of course Mormons as a group are conservative, but you have to remember that Harry Reid is a Mormon elected from that state.  It's inaccurate to suggest that all Mormons voted Republican and all voted for Romney to get one of theirs in office.  Being from Arizona, McCain courts Mormons in his Senate campaigns, and I expect that Republican Mormons have been supportive.

It is clear from exit polling that Mormons turned out and overwhelmingly voted for Romney, but not for the reasons suggested by CNN and Politico. 

How does one mobilize Mormons?  You call the local church and ask to talk to the pastor.  If someone answers (a big if because churches have no full-time staff), you will be told that the bishop is probably not available because he is at his job—at the gas station, in an accounting office, or at the mall.  When you finally track him down and propose that your candidate speak to the congregation, the bishop will tell you that the faith has a strict neutrality policy:

90% of Mormons in Nevada voted for Romney because the other frontrunners have denigrated Mormonism to push Romney down.  Hilary is struggling among black voters for the same reason Mormons voted for Romney--because of the soft racial attacks on Obama in New Hampshire.  My support for Hilary shifted to Obama because of it.

If anything, Romney's campaign can be described as a futile attempt to get people to look at him despite his religion, not to vote for him because of it.  I haven't done any formal polling of course, but every fellow Mormon I've talked to thinks he's struggled for a fair fight on his religion.  I assume Mormons in Nevada used the caucus to denounce other candidates' use of his Mormonism to wound him.  That shouldn't surprise anyone. 

Romney knows he doesn't get a boost nationwide and hasn't courted co-religionists as part of the campaign.  This is the real difference between Romney and a Huckabee, who is where he is by going repeatedly to his co-religionists.  What we're finding in Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina is that Huckabee can't lock in their support.  I believe that Mormons would actually turn on Romney if he boosted negative coverage of the religion by making a Mormon play for votes.  Speaking as a Mormon democrat, I certainly would.

McCain's mom--Mormons caused the Olympic scandal

Huckabee twists Mormon doctrine

Jon WarrenTHE URGE TO MERGE
I agree entirely with your post on Obama's appeal and fascism, and just wanted to elaborate on the thought.
 
I've long believed that underlying our society there is a perpetual struggle between the contention and the testing of beliefs needed for democratic politics to function, and something deep in human nature, either a yearning for consensus, solidarity, or belonging, or perhaps a fear of the consequences of impassioned conflict.  Whatever the cause, I think one party states are effectively the default option for political structures.  It's very hard for a culture to establish the institutions needed to overcome the drive for consensus, and almost as hard to maintain them over time. Incidentally, this is one the reasons accusing an opponent of engaging in "negative" advertising can be so effective.   
 
In fact, I would argue that we have not a two-party system, but a one-and-half party system, in which the one party reflects society's cultural and political consensus about how things ought to be, and the half party is essentially a repository for unfashionable ideas, but is understood not to be allowed to challenge the consensus.  We thus get the societal peace of mind of a one-party state, with the flexibility to change direction when necessary.  Our traditional "realignments" are really swiches from one one-party state to another.  This system has not been working very well for the last quarter century.  Although a large segment of society decided between 1980 and 1994 that the previous consensus needed to be overturned, we never got all the way to a new consensus -- perhaps because of the new power of the media, which was definitely not on board.  Whatever the reason, the old consensus has been holding on and fighting back very effectively, and indeed has been using the lack of clear consensus very effectively to attack
the nascent new one.  We may still be in a transitional period, and the new conservative consensus may become fully established the end, but I think it is very possible that we will remain in some form of contentious and discomforting equilibrium for a while.  Obama's appeal comes out of that deep need for communal politics:  people want politics to go away.  "Why can't we all get along" isn't very mature or sophisticated, but it's very human. 

Matthew C. Ames
Washington, DC

STANDING BETWEEN US AND CHAOS
# 1 Question: Is candidate a "squish"?

Presidents in the 21st century will have to make difficult and controversial decisions and stick with them, despite horrible political pressure from irrational and hysterical opponents. Clintonian breeze-followers and popularity-contest winners need not apply. Does the candidate have a history of standing strong when he is certain that he is right?

Strongest credible candidates: Giuliani, McCain. McCain's record seems mixed:he can be manipulated by his desire to be worshipped. But is he tough? Yes, of course McCain is tough. We MUST have a tough president, because we are heading toward chaos. Every century starts out with a huge bloodbath, and the clock is ticking on this one.

#2 Question: Vision: Can candidate see a big picture?

Strongest credible candidates: Giuliani. You might  not like his positions (they are not all "conservative"), but they're coherent and "big". Romney has many big ideas, but I don't see evidence of depth or vision. His views were assembled by marketers. McCain's views are assembled by the right side of his brain, which puts a leftward twitch on just about everything he does.

Huckabee ... uh, never mind..

# 3 Question: Who will seem the right choice in 50 years?

In other words, what's going on now that will make a big difference in fifty years and how much focus does the candidate bring to those issues? Social conservatism is just not that important. The economy is largely a non-issue: we will have prosperity, unless we bungle the national security question. The creeping size of the government is an issue. The border is an issue. Iran is an issue. The disintegration of Europe is an issue.

My conclusion: on balance, Giuliani. Where's he not conservative, it makes no difference. He's not going to get our guns, and he'll nominate decent justices. He's tough. He's got vision. He's not a squish. He's got the psychology to endure the thankless task that so many people seem to want.

Thompson I haven't mentioned, because I don't think he has any interest in governing. The presidency is a job at the end of the day. I like him very much personally.

Biggest drawback for Giuliani: conservatives may not vote for him, which cancels all of the above. But remember my theory...the election's there to lose. And if Republicans can lose this one by not turning out for a candidate they only like about 90% more than the opponent, will they be able to resist going down in flames? Maybe not!

Ezra Marsh
Baltimore