| We're all doomed, snotty commentators and mobilizing Mormons |
| Wednesday, 23 January 2008 | |
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PRIMARY POSTBAG BBJAAA NOT CONVINCING AT ALL I noticed you didn’t even mention Romney. He has won two states by a large margin, and leads in delegates. He has run a truly national campaign, competing in all the states. The only thing McCain has going for him is spin from the media who support him. No matter how much McCain supporters fantasize it, conservatives will fight him all the way to the convention, and not vote Republican in November if McCain somehow gets the nomination. Russell Van Zandt ONE RINO’S ENOUGH MCCAIN IS A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE Tell enough people that the only guy is McCain and they will through in the towel just like you. I've seen it happen now with a number of conservative pundits. "McCain is the only one electable, so you have no choice but to vote for him". Sounds like Gore and global warming's settled science to me. McCain is a terrible candidate. His temperament and ego disqualify him before you consider his dismal record in the Senate of when it counts, poking the GOP in the eye. Disgusting. I'm almost sorry I finished America Alone... but I'm not, it was a great read. Ken Cassell INSIGNIFICANT LEVELS OF SUPPORT McCain's is a "National" campaign that has failed in every state not on the coast of the Atlantic. After watching Mitt defeat all comers for White Evangelicals, for Veterans, for People Who Consider Terrorism The Biggest Concern and every other conceivable ideological or identity based demographic in Nevada, who can you say he wrote off? There is, incidentally, one voter demographic that McCain has not won once this race: Republicans (this isn't just hyperbole, it's actually true). James Spiller MCCAIN CAN GO TO HELL I will not vote for McCain. McCain-Feingold subverted the Constitution and McCain can go to hell. But what the hell, my vote is meaningless. Here in the no longer Free State of Maryland there is no organized opposition to the Democrat scum. Hell, thanks to traitorous bastards like Bush and McCain is there any organized opposition to the Democrat scum anywhere? The Reagan coalition has been lost in the Bushes and there will be hell to pay. What city do you think good Muslims will nuke first? Ralph Diamond CONRAD’S SUPPORTING JOHN Through his long ordeal, may Conrad black find grace and kindness January 15, 2008 "Mr. McCain, an authentic hero...is in the best of the military-political tradition of integrity. He doesn't speak in clichés or adjust his views for the fluctuating polls, and he does have a sense of humor...At this early point, if the office, in a phrase from Washington's time, is seeking anyone... it is John McCain." Lord Black Shane Mattison Little does it matter if McCain, Clinton, or Obama is elected - liberals will be in total control of the federal government. As a result, creeping socialism, fueled by weak immigration control, portends the end of traditional conservatism. Frank DOLE’S MY COMEBACK KID A GREAT CANDIDATE FOR THE DEMS He has done a remarkable job at screwing up most of Jorge's initiatives (judges, taxes, "torture", etc.) whilst trashing the 1st and maintaining our open borders. Iffen he's the best that the GOP can do, let it continue to rot. I'll go fishing. Tim Lusk HE UPHELD THE SURGE This strikes my as real leadership and is why I'm voting McCain despite all the standard conservative disagreements I have with him. If you’re ever in Cleveland drop me an email; dinner and beers are on me. Take care, Brian Andrews CHICKEN? JKGPSU MONEY TALKS Scott ROMNEY WILL WIN Huckabee will make it harder for Romney due to his cultural conservatism but Romney will be seen as most electable. Romney wants a one on one with McCain, or anyone, and will defeat anyone head to head. DOLE REDIVIVUS In the local pundit circle (read: my friends over gin martinis) we all agree that McCain is Dole redivivus: the too old war hero whose turn it is, who has major problems with the base. I just don't think an open borders guy like McCain who believes he can stop climate change by picking my pocket has a chance of beating out the Democrats: why not go for the exciting prospect of voting for Hillary or Obama given that they have the same policies as McCain on these central issues? (and will surely be coming to the center on Iraq after the nomination). And no - I just don't buy into the polls at this early stage that purport to tell us how McCain or Romney or so and so will do against the democratic field. So, we're doomed. McCain will get the nomination, the GOP will be enervated, and he'll and go down in an electoral college landslide to the First Black or First Woman president. Pr. H. R. Curtis WISHFUL THINKING If McCain loses, it's still a very open race. If he wins, it's a clear sign the voters are gathering around him. Go to pollster.com and you'll see that, outside of the Romney threat in Florida, McCain is his main danger in the big states he's betting on, like California and New Jersey. Hell, McCain is closing in on Giuliani in New York itself. If Giuliani can't win in New York, it's over for him. You might be right for Republicans like yourself that, if McCain wins SC the battle cry is, "Stop McCain," but not for Giuliani. That became his greatest need after New Hampshire, and McCain winning in SC just makes that so much less likely. Daniel Elmore WHAT’S WITH THE SNOTTINESS? C. Johnson YOU’RE AN ESTABLISHMENT HACK John McKerrow MARK REPLIES: I haven't ignored him. I've explained repeatedly - most recently on the radio last Thursday - that, while I support his wish for small and constitutional government at home, his isolationism is seductive but utterly absurd. This is a nation that cannot even enforce its own borders against two relatively benign neighbors, and Mr Paul proposes to hold the entire planet at bay? Dream on. Half the population of Mexico has crossed the southern border, and all the bad Canadian ideas have crossed the northern border (socialized health care, multiculturalism). A 19th century republic living in splendid isolation is a delusion that will complete the transformation of America into a Hispanic nation ruled by Canadian ideas. And the reason I didn't mention him in my "On To Florida" post is because he's not going to be the nominee. HUCKABEE, SNAKE-OIL SALESMAN As he says he can fix everything but never offers specifics as to how (other than those shamelessly lifted from people like Boortz and Krikorian), as he answers specific questions with obfuscation made palpable by slick humor, as he either runs from his record or distorts the results of it, I present to you that Mike Huckabee is the equivalent of the elixir salesman Clint Eastwood spits tobaccee juice on in "The Outlaw Josey Wales." He's the salesman, and his record/platform is the snake oil. What do you think? Lastly, it is my opinion that Fred should put a big chaw in his mouth, walk up to Huckabee, ask him about the benefits of Metamucil (since Huckabee would know more than most as he most assuredly employed it's use frequently during his rapid weight loss exercise), and after he's heard enough of the little man's ramblings about Holiday Inn Expresses and flagpoles and Chuck Norris' hairpieces and such, he should simply fire a good stream of tobaccee juice smack-dab on Huckabee's lapel and ask: "How is it with stains?" It would be just deserved, and Fred would win in a landslide. Again, your thoughts? Atmmgraves ARE YOU KIDDING? Sondra Brown EVERYONE’S SECOND CHOICE The longer things look uncertain, the more people will worry about fracturing the party, the more people will gravitate to a candidate nobody really dislikes. Also, how sure are we that evangelicals actually want Huck to be President? Isn't it possible he's just the 'stop-ignoring-us' candidate? James Eckert ABANDONING CONSERVATISM Jacob Lyles SHAME Pat BogganILL-EQUIPPED Greg Bowden RUDY JUST HAS TO WIN FLORIDA 1. Many who are going to vote for Rudy already voted (i.e. early voting in Florida) If Rudy wins Florida, the momentum swing is going to be huge. Look the GOP does not Like McCain. McCain is winning because: 1. People don't think Romney can win Simply put the GOP does not like McCain. Rudy will go after McCain you can bet on that. Also look for Thompson votes to go either Rudy or Romney's way. If Rudy wins it is going to be a shock and awe. He will be in the lead in delegates and probably win NY, NJ, and CT and place well in a bunch of others. If it comes down to Rudy or McCain Rudy is going to win this thing. The only wild card is how long Romney stays in. On the other hand the reverse may be true regarding how long will Rudy take votes from Romney. Bottom line is the GOP is going to be pro While the strategy can be questioned (i.e. Rudy should be doing better than he is), lets see what happens in Florida first. I thought Limbaugh's remarks on Rudy today reflect where the GOP base is going to go. Rudy might be pro-life but he said he will appoint conservative judges and unlike McCain Rudy can be trusted to do what he says. Don't jump of the Rudy wagon yet! Laurence Wagman NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING No, New Yorkers aren't necessarily going to rule out a candidate because he finished fourth in Iowa or third in New Hampshire. However, even negative buzz is better than having your face on a milk carton. L McClure99 I’M A GENIUS (MAYBE) Would that qualify me as a "sitting" genius ? You see, I WAS seated on Jan 11 when I wrote you a note headed: " You're Mark Steyn...and you'll disapprove of this message". In my note I said that while things looked bleak for Rudy, I saw him "..as a strong Derby horse sitting last after the first turn". In other words, I had not given up on my earlier prediction of a Rudy win (last Fall, I think). Now I feel the pressure...but I can handle it. (If Rudy and I DO win, I would really appreciate you taking your entire team out to a terrific lunch...after which you could take out yr cell-phone and call me up (1-450-464-5768) and all of you together sing to me "For He's A Jolly Good Corrie" (and please make sure whatsername isn't just mouthin' da woids). John Gross BRILLIANT STRATEGY? Barry Dauphin I DON’T GET IT SO WHAT? Jono2112 CAN YOU MOBILIZE MORMONS? It is clear from exit polling that Mormons turned out and overwhelmingly voted for Romney, but not for the reasons suggested by CNN and Politico. How does one mobilize Mormons? You call the local church and ask to talk to the pastor. If someone answers (a big if because churches have no full-time staff), you will be told that the bishop is probably not available because he is at his job—at the gas station, in an accounting office, or at the mall. When you finally track him down and propose that your candidate speak to the congregation, the bishop will tell you that the faith has a strict neutrality policy: 90% of Mormons in Nevada voted for Romney because the other frontrunners have denigrated Mormonism to push Romney down. Hilary is struggling among black voters for the same reason Mormons voted for Romney--because of the soft racial attacks on Obama in New Hampshire. My support for Hilary shifted to Obama because of it. If anything, Romney's campaign can be described as a futile attempt to get people to look at him despite his religion, not to vote for him because of it. I haven't done any formal polling of course, but every fellow Mormon I've talked to thinks he's struggled for a fair fight on his religion. I assume Mormons in Nevada used the caucus to denounce other candidates' use of his Mormonism to wound him. That shouldn't surprise anyone. Romney knows he doesn't get a boost nationwide and hasn't courted co-religionists as part of the campaign. This is the real difference between Romney and a Huckabee, who is where he is by going repeatedly to his co-religionists. What we're finding in Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina is that Huckabee can't lock in their support. I believe that Mormons would actually turn on Romney if he boosted negative coverage of the religion by making a Mormon play for votes. Speaking as a Mormon democrat, I certainly would. McCain's mom--Mormons caused the Olympic scandal Matthew C. Ames STANDING BETWEEN US AND CHAOS Presidents in the 21st century will have to make difficult and controversial decisions and stick with them, despite horrible political pressure from irrational and hysterical opponents. Clintonian breeze-followers and popularity-contest winners need not apply. Does the candidate have a history of standing strong when he is certain that he is right? Strongest credible candidates: Giuliani, McCain. McCain's record seems mixed:he can be manipulated by his desire to be worshipped. But is he tough? Yes, of course McCain is tough. We MUST have a tough president, because we are heading toward chaos. Every century starts out with a huge bloodbath, and the clock is ticking on this one. #2 Question: Vision: Can candidate see a big picture? Strongest credible candidates: Giuliani. You might not like his positions (they are not all "conservative"), but they're coherent and "big". Romney has many big ideas, but I don't see evidence of depth or vision. His views were assembled by marketers. McCain's views are assembled by the right side of his brain, which puts a leftward twitch on just about everything he does. Huckabee ... uh, never mind.. # 3 Question: Who will seem the right choice in 50 years? In other words, what's going on now that will make a big difference in fifty years and how much focus does the candidate bring to those issues? Social conservatism is just not that important. The economy is largely a non-issue: we will have prosperity, unless we bungle the national security question. The creeping size of the government is an issue. The border is an issue. Iran is an issue. The disintegration of Europe is an issue. My conclusion: on balance, Giuliani. Where's he not conservative, it makes no difference. He's not going to get our guns, and he'll nominate decent justices. He's tough. He's got vision. He's not a squish. He's got the psychology to endure the thankless task that so many people seem to want. Thompson I haven't mentioned, because I don't think he has any interest in governing. The presidency is a job at the end of the day. I like him very much personally. Biggest drawback for Giuliani: conservatives may not vote for him, which cancels all of the above. But remember my theory...the election's there to lose. And if Republicans can lose this one by not turning out for a candidate they only like about 90% more than the opponent, will they be able to resist going down in flames? Maybe not! Ezra Marsh |