Testing Times

The Mark Steyn Show
March 25, 2020

https://www.steynonline.com/10146/testing-times

Audio Recording

Welcome to a self-isolated socially distant quarantined curfewed sheltered-in-place edition of our regular activities. Mark has retooled The Mark Steyn Show for an audio format that brings you his latest commentary on the Coronaland news of the day, but also provides a few other diversions, encompassing Truman Capote, Michelangelo Antonioni, Kathy Bates, the highest rank of European nobility, oldies night on the Isle of Wight and the Moldovan hit parade.

If you like this format, he may do more. But, if you don't, we shall speak no more about it. And, if you're a Mark Steyn Club member and you'd like to submit a question for Mark to address on his hypothetical next show, please leave it in the comments below.

The Mark Steyn Show is made with the support of members of The Mark Steyn Club. As he always says, Club membership isn't for everyone, but it does come with some special benefits, including:

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Mark will be back this evening with the next episode in our current Tale for Our Time - Daniel Defoe's Journal of the Plague Year.

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92 Reader Comments

Ray Winchester • Mar 30, 2020 at 07:03

There will be a big reckoning when this farce is over. We would all be mad to business with the psychopathic CCP.

Greg the Kiwi • Mar 27, 2020 at 14:36

Thanks Mark n M , just found the new format quite calm an relaxing , informative as always, but a nice feeling about it , given the heat of virus angst
Stay well all of you

Garry from LSD (Lower Slower Delaware) • Mar 27, 2020 at 12:30

Just got to this and am on to the next one. Two thumbs up! Thank you very, very much!

Lisa Gerlich • Mar 26, 2020 at 14:49

Loved, loved, loved and loved the show.

Bradford Stephen Kyle • Mar 26, 2020 at 14:27

Bravo!

Peggy O. • Mar 26, 2020 at 13:14

Mark, Thank you for your audio files. I take you with me on road trips listening as I drive. I appreciate your perspective on current events as well as your ability to make us laugh during these trying times. God bless & keep you!

Michael Sirks • Mar 26, 2020 at 12:53

Great show! I really enjoyed it!

CrossBorderGal • Mar 26, 2020 at 12:19

So grateful for the audio broadcast on the 25th. Reassured to hear your current thoughts and perspectives while we are holed-up, keeping our distance from the outside world. Please do more as you have the time. Your voice, your thoughts, your wisdom are the best antidote in the current madness of crowds.

Jacob Shepherd • Mar 26, 2020 at 10:32

Great show!

"Every nation will eventually get the corona virus, but China got it right off the bat." (Jim Gossett, newsmakerline.com)

Andrew A

Jacob Shepherd • Mar 27, 2020 at 12:17

That's my favourite coronavirus line.

Charles Elkins • Mar 26, 2020 at 09:18

In times of what are either great insanity, or if you are a cynical sour person like me, a time of great fear that the world you enjoy is ending, I am so thankful for Mark Steyn's and the other members of his Club for giving me a place to vent and maintain my sanity.

Can it get worse? Does the bill of rights mean anything? In New Jersey yes:

"Cops broke up a "YouTube party" — with more than 30 guests — at a New Jersey home over the weekend, just after Gov. Phil Murphy issued a lockdown order, according to authorities and a new report.

The party took place on Lanning Avenue in Penns Grove on Saturday night, local Police Chief Patrick Riley Sr. said in a Facebook post.

"This is in direct violation of the Governor's executive orders and will not be tolerated," Riley wrote. "The tenant was charged with a disorderly persons offense."

While the nature of the party was unclear, Riley told NJ.com it appeared attendees were making videos of each other and planned to upload them to YouTube.

In an executive order that went into effect at 9 p.m. Saturday, the governor prohibited any parties, celebrations and other social events — and ordered residents not to leave their homes unless absolutely necessary."

Andrew A

Charles Elkins • Mar 27, 2020 at 14:45

You make good points here and elsewhere. The panic is worse than the disease.

James Morphew • Mar 26, 2020 at 08:58

I must admit that Mark's rendition of Kung Flu Fighting had me howling in my home office, as I was ostensibly working from home. Nothing compares with nostalgia perverted with depressing current events.

Josh Passell • Mar 26, 2020 at 07:36

Old China hands Gordon Chang and Frank Gaffney have been reminding us (as if we've forgotten) that China has lied, is lying, and will ever lie. Chang on Twitter yesterday (and pretty much every day): "Here's what you need to know: Beijing lies 99.9999999999% of the time."
Okay, he's a pie-eyed optimist. But since we we have so much time on our hands these days, isn't this one of those "knights and knaves" logic puzzles, where the knights can tell only the truth and the knaves can tell only lies? Who are the knights in this scenario? Well, there were a few about, Dr. Li Wenliang, for example, and others who tried to alert the world to what was happening down Hubei way, until the Wet Market Malaise or the jackbooted thugs of the Communist Party silenced and disappeared them. Knights haven't had such a tough time since the later Crusades.
How do we craft a response to events when the knaves are running the show? And knavery is rampant--not just in the Chinese leadership, but among its cheerleaders in Western media. (Who knew Don Lemon could do the splits?) The disease itself is pretty much a thoroughgoing knave, a proverbial hound dog, lying all the time. In an interview yesterday, an expert in infectious diseases at one of Boston's most prestigious hospitals noted that the reason young people seem susceptible to the disease is not that they actually are susceptible, but that so many of them probably have it! It may be relatively harmless to most, but even a one-percent morbidity rate among Gen Y-ers and Z-ers (who are out and about more than we altakockers) is going to result in a lot of dead young people. But that bad news has a silver lining in that the young-uns, having recovered from the disease (many didn't know they even had), would surely be building the "herd immunity" we so desperately need. But we won't know for sure unless we test everyone, which would seem to be impossible, at least in the short term. See how hard this is? To paraphrase screenwriter Robert Towne, "Forget it, Jake. It's China."

Charles Elkins

Josh Passell • Mar 26, 2020 at 09:06

"The disease itself is pretty much a thoroughgoing knave, a proverbial hound dog, lying all the time. In an interview yesterday, an expert in infectious diseases at one of Boston's most prestigious hospitals noted that the reason young people seem susceptible to the disease is not that they actually are susceptible, but that so many of them probably have it! "

Well said.

Note that there is no real evidence that the "novel and deadly COVID 19 Disease" originated in China. What is believed, and with good evidence, is that Wuhan, China is were the virus was first identified, discovered, whatever, as a new viral strain. The jump to ORIGINATED there is an assumption for which I have seen no evidence in the popular media. It seems to me highly unlikely that the virus, if it were new in September, 2019 in Wuhan, would have made it to the backwaters of Louisiana (Donaldsonville and Addis) in this time. More likely the virus is a common coronavirus which has been around in circulation with the other coronaviruses, rhinovirus, and influenza viruses across the world for sometime, if not forever.

I believe it is most likely of similar effect to most of the viral infections that are described by the CDC as an "ILI," an "Influenza Like Infection." ILI's are what the CDC is estimating when it estimates the "Flu Burden of Influenza" each year. To keep soaring, exploding, astronomical numbers of cases, and the unbelievably small numbers of serious outcomes (deaths) the deadly novel coronavirus "outbreak" in perspective go to https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm and look at the number of ILI's for the current 2019-2020 flu season. Not 30,000, or 300,000, or 3,000,000 symptomatic cases, but 38,000,000 at the low end to 54,000,000 cases at the high end of the 95% confidence interval. Deaths are estimated, with 95% certainty from 23,000 to 59,000. "Covid 19" is an ILI and is and I believe that it is likely that this "novel" virus and its health effect has been subsumed in the ILI flu counts and estimates made by the CDC for years.

So why has the world and the United States gone completely insane? The numbers that the Democratic Totalitarians are using to "lockdown" generally only the peasantry of their domains, are very very small compared to the affected populations and even the CDC ILI numbers. Maybe the novel virus is not new to earth at all, just newly segregated from all its related virus strains and so so extraordinarily useful POLITICALLY. What better than a movie set of nurses and doctors in isolation suits to thoroughly terrorize the peasants and make them do anything? COVID 19, if judged by the number of reported US or Worldwide deaths compared to population, is not a serious health threat, but is apparently a tremendous terror weapon to be used by Democrats against all of the little people, bitter clingers (Obama's words), and irredeemable deplorables (Hillary Clinton's words) who say a glimmer of hope in Trump's political message.

The Democrats are evil people. Any thinking person can see they are stoking terror and fear to increase their own power and to mentally and physically crush their political opponents. They and their allies at NBC, CNN etc are evil as well. If the as Senator John Kennedy put it, the Repub "A-holes" (actually he was referring to Democrat senators) who are supposed to be on our side don't stand up soon, we are lost.

I hope I am completely wrong, but I greatly fear that the "End of America" is may be upon us. I further hope and pray that it is not as bad as Mr. Steyn predicted in his book of that name.

ON THE OTHER HAND, as the Governor of New York said when issuing his lockdown order, "If it saves one life, I'll be happy."

Dan

Charles Elkins • Mar 26, 2020 at 17:36

Excellent comments, but private labs have detected 85% artificiality in COVID19, but now is not the time for that - for geopolitical and insurance reasons. They assess it was a 'spill' - probably from selling lab animals. Furthermore, the virus appears 'unfinished' i.e. a prototype. The silver lining is that it 'spilled' before its final version was ready. I agree with the 'gag' - there is no upside to accusation for the moment, and may never be.

David O'Neil (Australia) • Mar 26, 2020 at 06:12

For a first effort you sure set the bar high, Mark. Powerful and beautiful words, terrific production quality, brilliant from start to finish. Australia's ABC gets a billion dollars a year but doesn't even get close to this.

Charles Elkins • Mar 25, 2020 at 23:26

This just in. There have been three (3), I repeat three (3) new coronavirus deaths in the state of Illinois bring the statewide death toll to NINETEEN (19). See https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-pandemic-chicago-illinois-news-20200325-swgp5hlecrbabjqx52etj2rruq-story.html. Ages and former health status of the victims are unknown.

Not to worry though in the same article the Hon. Mayor Lori Lightfoot threatened to shut down the city's parks and the entire lakefront if the city's residents don't obey the Gov. of Illinois' stay-at-home order.
"I personally have been concerned with what I've seen in our parks. People playing basketball," Lightfoot said. "And what I've seen on the lakefront, way too many people gathering like it's just another day. This is not another day."

On a more somber note, according to the Chicago Sun Times there have been NINETY (90) murders in the City of Chicago in 2020. See https://graphics.suntimes.com/homicides/.

Are all thinking free individuals in the United States lost? How did this happen?

Fran Lavery • Mar 25, 2020 at 23:07

I was just singing .."goodbye, Rosie, Queen of Corona" words today as I was feeding the birds. Yesterday, we added a bright orange canary, which I named, DJ. Very cheery little bird! Very happy to be liberated from that plexi box at the shop.
I loved Paul Simon's creativity and loved his Graceland lp when it came out. The video he made with Chevy Chase, "You Can Call me Al," is still one of my favorite music videos. It's impossible to stand still when that song is played.
Loved the show. Felt like I was sitting in front of the old radio with my pa, back in the day. (I only just got "pitching the woo (han)" this afternoon. Slow on the uptake, these days!)

Perry Pattetic • Mar 25, 2020 at 23:04

Thanks Mark.
Just listened.
The commercial break irritated me, as I have not listened to or watched one in 10 years.
Good spread of items.. For some reason, the mention of Kathy Bates in the intro made me think of the Stephen King novel Misery, which came to mind a few days ago when I was on this site. Can't think why ...
I have decided that the Chinese unleashed the Chinese Virus as bio-warfare. They don't give a stuff about anything other than the survival of the CPP leadership. Perhaps Xi has been immunized.
And those nutters who want Saint Greta to rule the world now have a preview.

Kate Smyth

Perry Pattetic • Mar 25, 2020 at 23:48

Tweet that received over 300K "likes", by @ThomasSchulz:

Wow... Earth is recovering

- Air pollution is slowing down
- Water pollution is clearing up
- Natural wildlife returning home

Coronavirus is Earth's vaccine
We're the virus

Owen Morgan

Kate Smyth • Mar 26, 2020 at 06:21

Don't forget the lefties' motto: never let a Croesus go to waste.

Charles Elkins

Kate Smyth • Mar 26, 2020 at 10:32

Kate,

Very interesting and very telling.

Hand in glove with truest statement of a Democratic Totalitarian's hideously fake/false and logically idiotic expression of his love for all of humankind:

:"I want to be able to say to the people of New York — I did everything we could do," Cuomo told reporters at the state Capitol. "And if everything we do saves just one life, I'll be happy."

--Gov. and Saint to be Andrew Cuomo, truly and piously spoken on the occasion of his glorious crushing of the deplorable, irredeemable little people trying to live their meaningless miserable little lives as they see fit, on the 20th day of March, in the year of his lordship 2020 at the Capitol and soon to be Civic Cathedral of the State of New York.

This is the true war which might be about to begin. Now we we may be getting a glimmer of what Hillary Clinton had in mind for the IRREDEEMABLE DEPLORABLES like me. Us Steynites vs them. I am going to hide, because they look like a better bet to win. We, me included, try to reason our way to understanding, writing a lot of words only an insignificant number will read. Cuomo uses fear, terror, and the physical force of law enforcement to make his point.

The truly blind and evil leftists, ANTIFAs and fellow traveler. idiots follow such evil persons as Cuomo because Cuomo cares so much and so deeply about every single life being saved. They try not to think too much about the many, many more worthless deplorable and irredeemable lives that are crushed, ruined or lost. Who cares about THOSE people really? The pious leftists nor the governor never really liked those dead or lost fascist people much anyway.

Brian from Minneapolis

Kate Smyth • Mar 26, 2020 at 11:06

"You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs." That is what the left is thinking at this very moment. Using a pandemic to forward their agendas. The real terrorists are the ones who claim to work for us but are willing to have us lose our jobs like during the Obama era and use it as an opportunity to fulfill their "moral obligation" to give those lost jobs to a more diverse peoples that don't include us.

Charles Elkins

Brian from Minneapolis • Mar 28, 2020 at 09:11

Well Said.

Dan • Mar 25, 2020 at 21:43

A leader or commander knows this when it comes to SME advice:

The Lawyer will tell you to do Nothing.
The Doctor will tell you to do Everything.
The Accountant will tell you it will cost 10 times too much.
The Engineer will tell you it must be 10 times stronger.

..and then there is Captain Kirk...or Patton...

Charles Elkins

Dan • Mar 26, 2020 at 10:40

As Mark said in is comentary, what matters is what happens when the current insanity ends.

I pray a leader arises soon or we will be lost. I am not hopeful. Take a look at the "Families First Coronavirus Response Act passed authored by a Democrat, passed by a Repub Senate, and signed by President Trump in a panic. It expands the FMLA to all private business no matter how small while exempting companies with more than 500 employees (why?). The new law makes unpaid family leave paid family leave at least til the end of the year. YEAAA, whip micro small business at a time of maximum stress. And these people are our leaders?

Walt Trimmer

Dan • Mar 26, 2020 at 15:38

As a former subject matter expert engineer I am deeply offended by your characterization, deeply. We usually us a factor of safety of 2 to 3, not the 10 you assert!

Sometimes when it is appropriate we use a FOS barely above 1. For example, the suspension cable for the Golden Gate Bridge. When you are hanging a steel cable that has to support its own weight, you can't go much over what is actually needed because it is just too heavy.

And what does Kirk kissing all the alien women he has first contact with have to do with leadership?

The Assessor • Mar 25, 2020 at 21:34

The jungle telegraphs indicate that private labs who have identified the artificial nature of COVID19 are or have been directed to stay quiet. Big Insurance is looking for exclusion opportunities. Stay tuned. Remember, the ChiComs sent the General in charge of BioWar to sort out Wuhan, not their 'surgeon general' or CHI FEMA.

Charles Elkins

The Assessor • Mar 25, 2020 at 22:54

I don't believe that the ChiComs created the virus panic, but the lefty news media did. A double play, increase ad rates and kill Trumps re-election in one fell swoop. In New York they are stoking the terror, panic' and fear with headlines about SOARING percentage death rates calculated from very low bases. A record 14 new deaths in New Jersey, a state with nearly 9 million residents. A truly terrifying body count of 280 in NYC, soaring 113%, a city with a similar 8.6 million population. Send all of the peasants home to die quietly now, if you believe any of the lies told by NBC in NYC.

Damien Carbury • Mar 25, 2020 at 20:54

Gidday Mark,
I'm chastened by your response to my last Clubland Q&A question and have now convinced my sexagenarian parents to stay in their home for the duration. Their skepticism about Covid19 became concern when I played your audio edition for them. Being libertarian types possessed of a healthy cynicism we all tend to ignore the shrill drive by media; I often default to a diametrically opposite view to whatever the networks say. Thankyou for bringing a perfect clarity to the situation. Looking forward to an episode of Mark's Music for the many showtune queens among us.

Kate Smyth • Mar 25, 2020 at 20:42

Fabulous show! It should be a regular feature.

The media coverage of positive tests in well celebrities has eclipsed media reporting of hospital and ICU admissions (and rates thereof) in major outbreak areas. If it turns out that NY state really does need 30,000 ventilators concurrently just for COVID cases by early May - ten times the number of ventilators in that state - it would be staggering; just 2-3 times capacity would strain any system (whether socialised healthcare or not), with further pressure from the high rate of staff sickness.

PS. The proposed roll-out of mass finger-prick serology test kits for home use could be a game changer in the UK in terms of minimising lockdowns and getting people back to work. It would also be a very useful test for potential cruisers!!

Charles Elkins

Kate Smyth • Mar 26, 2020 at 11:44

I would strongly disagree. Mass testing is irrelevant. I believe that It does not address the issue, will increase the panic among the simple minded and will potentially make the political problem much worse.

This panic is not about a logical public health response to a serious disease, it is a deadly serious political and freedom issue. These lockdown orders are destroying our constitutional and God-given natural rights of Americans to freely associate, worship, and most importantly be safe and secure in our homes.. Even though the Supreme court allows from time to time government to ignore a constitutional right, the offending government must have a "compelling interest" and use the "least restrictive" method to achieve this interest.

Apply this analysis to any state-wide lockdown. No logic, no compelling interest (less than 70 old and sick person's deaths in Louisiana about of 4.65 million) and no real interest in protecting the vulnerable population with transparently ignorant "social distancing" bs ("six foot separation, most stores still open (YEAAA Home Depot), no restaurant dining room service, but you can get take-out)? No discussion of a less restrictive approach. What about isolating the statistically few and readily identifiable people who are at any real risk of death from Covid 19 and letting the rest of us go about our lives?. That is what the United States has done for that insignificant cause of tens of thousands of US deaths for year, the Seasonal Flu.

Mass required testing for a virus that has killed less than 1000 americans at the nearly the end of the cold and flu season will just continue to inspire fear and panic as there are certainly many many young and healthy individuals who have likely been exposed to the virus. The aren't sick and won't get sick but you can bet many will be beside themselves with fear and ready to do what ever Saint Cuomo says to do. This behavior will encourage the political damage and allow the Democrat Pols to get much much worse in their high handed treatment of the people.

Someone has got to standup and say NO MORE OF THIS CRAP... Like all respiratory viruses COVID-19 has no real treatment for the very large majority of the minor or non-symptomatic cases. Just like influenza, for the relative statistically few more serious cases the only treatment is hospitalization and then treatment for pneumonia. All of the Vents are not fighting COVID -19, but are treating the symptom of pneumonia / Adult respiratory disease syndrome (ARDS). If you are already sick for any reason: flu, COVID 19, aspiration of a foreign substance, etc and develop ARDS, you are most likely a goner.,

COVID 19 with less than 1000 or 1,000,000 deaths is no where near enough for Americans to surrender their God Given human rights to Governors Edwards and Cuomo. They would just use the situation to enrich themselves and enslave you anyway.

Kate Smyth

Charles Elkins • Mar 27, 2020 at 13:09

Thanks for your replies, Charles. I have to come back to this, but I too am horrified by the zeal with which many have seized this opportunity to infringe upon fundamental individual liberties. The Made-in-China virus is the totalitarian gift that keeps on giving, from deaths (and there will be more, Wuhan-style) to lockdowns.

That said, the logic behind a short, sharp, geographically-targeted (not nation-wide) shut down is to prevent the situation that is emerging across New York hospitals.

Yes, the mortality wrt ARDS is high, but it's a condition - regardless of cause - for which suitable candidates have received supportive care (often for weeks) in ICUs in developed countries. Should intensive care be scrapped for ARDS cases? For Covid patients (ie. when the demands on the system overwhelm it)? What's interesting is that Cuomo has communicated this stark reality to the public, presumably to prepare people for a more palliative approach. The serious risk to healthcare workers through exposure is another dimension of this disease.

Not to mention the healthcare chaos and economic catastrophe. To be continued...

Gregory Fisher • Mar 25, 2020 at 19:44

I like this format. Please make more!

Janet Long • Mar 25, 2020 at 19:06

Not a question this time for you, Mark, but a comment: When I see Ms Pelosi on TV (and believe me I avoid that if possible) I can't help but be reminded of a Roman emperor basking in the attention of those awaiting her thumbs up or thumbs down on this relief bill. You just know that she is relishing every moment, don't you? Seems Crazy Bernie may be trying to usurp some of that breathless waiting, however, with his own threats to hold things up. Some things never change.

diana pollin

Janet Long • Mar 25, 2020 at 20:45

Personally, I can see no delight-evil or benevolent- on her bottoxed visage and the stiff arm movements she makes accompanying her halting speech renders the robotic impression all the more vivid. The duo she participated in with Schumer at her side months ago brought to mind, well, two characters in a sci-fi 60s flick.

BallBounces in PEI

diana pollin • Mar 26, 2020 at 10:20

Sure, but isn't mentioning her bottox a bit cheeky?

diana pollin

diana pollin • Mar 26, 2020 at 11:19

Yes, I plead guilty, but it goes farther than skin-deep and cattiness. It reveals a person who has problems accepting reality and ageing, a person who is power-driven and image-driven and also in denial of reality, like, in my opinion, the democrats and the media trying to kick their probable candidate's mental fuzziness under the rug and everyone can see it.

Joe Bottini • Mar 25, 2020 at 18:33

With the media attention on "Chinese virus," I was thinking about a line of yours: "sometimes a society is simply too stupid to survive." It turns out you wrote it regarding the arrest of the man for singing Kung Fu Fighting almost nine years ago.

Heidi Kalian • Mar 25, 2020 at 18:30

thank you! Loved it!

Phillip Callesen • Mar 25, 2020 at 18:24

I like the format Mark. Keep 'em coming.

John Wilson • Mar 25, 2020 at 18:20

Bless you, Mark, for your rendition of "Kung Flu Fighting"! Here by popular demand.

TERESA PULLEY • Mar 25, 2020 at 17:35

Many thanks for the audio version!
My reading is getting more difficult as I go down the road.
I joined your club in Feb for the specific reason of being able to download your audio as I am a BIG fan and admirer of your thoughtful and humorous work ... You the man !!

Robert Fox • Mar 25, 2020 at 17:29

I have heard on television this week that the Chinese flu virus was NOT concocted in a lab. Okay. Fine. Circling back around to the witless journos as Mark might put it. Why doesn't one one the bright young reporters ask "If this is a virus that came from nature, and as contagious and deadly as it is, why is this the first epidemic of it?" Maybe I'm missing something but polio, small pox, and the plague didn't wait around until the 21st century before they spread around.

Walt Trimmer • Mar 25, 2020 at 17:12

I noticed Stuart Varney is not wearing makeup these days. Too close contact with the artists. Now I understand your audio commentary decision.

23 States have ordered the close of beauty parlors. Things are going to get ugly.

Andy

Walt Trimmer • Mar 25, 2020 at 17:52

Starting to remind me of that segment of the Batman movie where the Joker (Jack Nicholson in this one) poisons random cosmetics and all the news anchors go on looking plain & haggard.

RAC • Mar 25, 2020 at 16:28

My immediate reaction upon learning that this virus was a 2.2 was 'that can"t be right!' - as many who learned math in the 50's and 60's can likely do I didn't need a calculator to run the sequence of spread. I ran the numbers on this site right away between a 1.5 and a 2.0 R-naught and drew little reaction which frankly didn't surprise me sad to say. I was somewhat encouraged by a few who did grasp what those numbers portend and envisioning the inevitable whether we lock down this country or not. Now we have the worst of both worlds. Two weeks ago in my beautiful state of Arizona we had 9 confirmed cases - in one week it was up eight fold - this week we will be up ten fold to roughly 700-800 confirmed cases possibly even more by Sunday. See how this works? If the 2.2 number doesn't resonate - and most people are not aware or interested in it anyway - being far more concerned about how the Hanks are making out in the land of down under - then this rather alarming progression might wake up a few still capable of understanding grade school math. Last week on Hannity Lara Logan, my favorite journalist on the planet - took a stab at explaining the R-naught of Corona and got it totally wrong and not by a little bit. She had average flu at 1 infecting 3 with Corona at 1 infecting 10
I re-ran the segment to ensure I'd heard her correctly. Hannity, dumb as a tree stump on this subject like most Americans didn't catch it of course and I wonder what percentage of his viewers did. Low single numbers is my guess. Heaven help us.

Segnes Schonken

RAC • Mar 25, 2020 at 18:59

Perfectly explained, R.: thanks.

There are likely to be intervening variables, so the calculation probably won't run until there's nobody left to infect. When the numbers were run on the spread of AIDS/HIV, it was predicted that the entire populations of places such as Malawi and Rwanda would be gone not many years later. It turned out that people who had what you might call vulnerable lifestyles - prostitutes and their patrons, for instance, not to mention the unfortunate wives of their patrons - died off faster than they could be replaced, and the spread of AIDS/HIV died back, exponent notwithstanding. Coronavirus seems to travel a whole lot more effectively, so quite reasonably folk are putting their faith in isolation, medicines and vaccines to be that intervening variable. Still, one hopes that others will be discovered. Who knows? Perhaps something in the diet?

I hope that it will turn out to be smoked oysters, or spicy nachos. I'll settle for teiglach, even. I'll get that 2.2 down, for sure!

Yes, yes, I'm part of the problem, not the solution. I've been told before. Depressing.

Charles Elkins

Segnes Schonken • Mar 25, 2020 at 22:34

In addition to intervening variables, I believe that panic and politics are causing many false estimates of future trends based upon little or no reliable data. I don't believe that there is enough data for a trend analysis, or a basis for an R0 calculation or for an overall mortality rate. Covid 19 testing in most places is still spotty at best. There just have not been enough testing so not enough reliable data. All the experts have droned on about the mild and asymptomatic cases.

Look at the limitations section in any of the CDC's scholarly analysis of any Covid topic. For instance the March 18 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly article about Covid-19 serious outcomes. One, among may serious shortcomings, is a complete absence of any comorbidity data about any of the deaths included in their study.

For a good discussion of the data problem, see:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Finally, I do know with certainty that the Governor of Louisiana has ordered that I may not have a private party with more than 10 persons in my private residence, with the basis of his emergency declaration being that 65 persons 36 or over and all with one or more comorbidities have died in Louisiana. There were more murders in Louisiana in 2020, with 29 murders in New Orleans alone in January and February.

There really is no point in trying to approach what is an obviously political situation with a logical analysis. The pols like the Governor of Louisiana are not acting logically, nor do I believe even in good faith.

Segnes Schonken

Charles Elkins • Mar 25, 2020 at 22:57

Thanks, C. good points, all. "There really is no point in trying to approach what is an obviously political situation with a logical analysis. The pols like the Governor of Louisiana are not acting logically, nor do I believe even in good faith," certainly resonates particularly well for me.

For sure the data are skimpy and should be treated as preliminary. My hopes for the curative properties of smoked oysters, spicy nachos and/or teiglach on on the other hand are definitely reliable,

Paul Harmon • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:47

We have fallen backward from a Christian civilization, confident God was looking out for us and ready to try the next big thing, to conquer the next frontier of fear. We are now a collection of superstitious tribes, standing in the mouths of our caves or among the ruins of our forefathers, looking in awe at the thunder and rain, wondering what we are in for now. Who you worship matters.

Segnes Schonken • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:43

It was over too quickly! Thanks.

Tom Gelsinon • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:41

Some cable news commentators said, before the coronavirus outbreak, that we are in the 11th year of the Obama recovery. Does that mean that we are now also in the 11th year of the Obama-era H1N1 virus pandemic? If one is going to make such wild assertions regarding economic history, why not go "whole hog" and apply such logic to everything?

Rick Vinas/San Antonio, TX

Tom Gelsinon • Mar 25, 2020 at 17:53

And, of course, why was Obama's "recovery" flat for the first 8 years, while he was in office, and then took off as soon as he left? What changed after 8 years? Correlation or causation?

Rick Vinas/San Antonio, TX

Tom Gelsinon • Mar 25, 2020 at 17:58

"The crappiest news media in the English-speaking world". ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN: "We're number one, We're number one!"

Don Reed

Rick Vinas/San Antonio, TX • Mar 25, 2020 at 19:17

Hi, Rick. "Conceive!" as Max Beerbohm would say... Imagine a variation of the illustration of political circular firing squad, updated to 2020, with each media company simultaneously yelling at the media company standing next to it, "Hold My Beer!"

These people have absolutely no shame. None.

Decades ago, the "Wall Street" "wire houses" were infamous for their dangerous, unethical financial maneuvers. Reputable houses kept their distance from all of them, with a fiery passion, knowing that these Model-A Madoffs could and would ruin the entire industry's reputation, if they got ahold of the steering wheels.

Well, the media "Chinese wall" (what a quaint concept!) came down, gradually, starting about 30-40 years ago, and the end result is this: The MSM companies today --- Viacom, Comcast and Disney, et al --- are the ANYTHING GOES cockroach-infested Wall Street wire houses of a century ago.

What goes on at NBC "News" et al would horrify the ruthless cutthroats who ran the financial wire houses in 1920!

Charles Elkins

Tom Gelsinon • Mar 25, 2020 at 22:06

How dare you impugn President Obama's handling of the minor little H1N1 thing which killed about 12,000 I think.. Don't you know that H1N1 is an influenza virus, not a SARS virus like the Covid 19. The "seasonal flu" is nothing, nothing, like the deadly and novel, very deadly covid -19. Of course, flu, according to the CDC's best estimate, killed more than 61,000 in the US over the 2017-2018 flu season (a high flu death season in the past several years). By the way, in the parish (county) where I live about 76 people died during the 17-18 season. So far there have been TWO deaths (less than 70 none under 36 years old dead in the entire state) in my parish from Covid 19, yet the Governor of Louisiana has issued a home arrest order of all little people who work at little unimportant jobs, like teaching school. Of course Governor Edwards was the Governor of Louisiana during the 2017-2018 flu season, but I don't think he had anything to say during that period.

As Mark said he is tiring of house arrest. Me too, but I am losing my mind with worry not about Covid-19, but about the loss of all my rights, under such an outrageously flimsy pretense.

David Hagen

Rick Vinas/San Antonio, TX • Mar 26, 2020 at 10:36

I don't know the Canadian media would give you a good run for the money with the CBC leading the charge.

Richard Byrne • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:29

Go for it Mark. You're fine in audio format, no problema. As the great man himself, El Rusbo, might say, that's a bit of Spanish lingo for you. May you and your family remain healthy and well as we all pray for our dear Rush Limbaugh and his family as well!

poxy • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:09

Earlier this morning I watched a short video in which a young Chinese lady gave her opinion of the honesty (or lack thereof) of the news coming from her country. It was especially interesting as it was under the watchful eye of someone who was trying to stop it.

Chris Hall aka MCF • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:08

When will the Song of the Week be The Knack's version of M-m-m-my Corona?

Damien Carbury

Chris Hall aka MCF • Mar 25, 2020 at 22:36

I've been singing this for a week!

Josh Passell • Mar 25, 2020 at 13:55

Falling down airplane steps and giving the wrong speech—Mugabe or Biden? And how could we tell the difference? Just kidding. Mugabe would be shrewd enough to execute (and probably did!) handlers who showed him to be so sadly deteriorated. Biden just pays them millions as "consultants".
I give the format Two Thumbs Up!

Charles Elkins

Josh Passell • Mar 26, 2020 at 10:44

Pray Biden doesn't die before its too late for the Dems to replace him on the fall ballot. I keep telling myself President Trump still has a chance no matter what happens over the next months because Uncle Joe is his opponent.

Donna Senft • Mar 25, 2020 at 13:15

How can we get the country to engage in an intelligent conversation about relative risks, risks of contracting the CCP virus vs. other risks with having the country shut down? I'd like to get away from the reflexive "one death is too many" response.

Charles Elkins

Donna Senft • Mar 26, 2020 at 11:09

Donna,

I read your post and nearly missed the "CCP virus." Good one, I have exactly the same thought and your comment makes me very happy to know that I am not alone about the "one life" B/S..

But don't you really mean, at least in the United States, the DTS virus? DTS meaning "Democratic Totalitarian Socialist" party, AKA the Democratic Party, where one of its favorite sayings is "never let a terror-inducing fake crisis go to waste."

Besides, Donna, why would a Democrat true believer "ever want to engage in an intelligent conversation about relative risks, risks of contracting the CCP virus vs. other risks with having the country shut down" or about anything with such an obviously irredeemable, deplorable person like you or me? Shut up and sit down.

David London • Mar 25, 2020 at 13:01

Question for hypothetical next show:
Mark, You have been keeping a close watch on the Coronavirus figures in Italy. But have you spared a moment to consider the figures for Japan, where a notoriously ageing population of 125 million (compared to 60 million in Italy) in far closer geographical proximity to China has so far registered a total of 42 deaths from Coronavirus - as compared to Italy's 6,820. What explains such a vast disparity?

Perry Pattetic

David London • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:20

Now that the Olympics are out of the way, the numbers will rise.

Al Man from CA

David London • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:31

Hi David
Mark is the expert, but in my humble opinion I think that Japan has a strict immigration policy, thus no foreigners filling in for low birth-rate younger Japanese, unlike the EU that welcomed millions of "refugees". Italy has also welcomed thousands of mainland Chinese as workers and tourists. See Mark's observations on the idiot government officials in Florence promoting the "hug a Chinese" meme.

Don Reed

Al Man from CA • Mar 25, 2020 at 19:22

You get what you pay for, and Italy got what it paid for. England with its swarms of imported locusts (see Bristol, UK riots, burning food delivery trucks) is next; and when the NYC jails empty out their prisons, that ensuing conflagration, with the Communist Mayor De Blasio handcuffing his police, will look like Watts in 1965 multiplied by Newark NJ in 1967 multiplied by the looting and arson during the NYC blackout of 1977. The number of people killed in riots, worldwide, could end up rivaling the CV casualty lists.

Charles Elkins

David London • Mar 26, 2020 at 10:54

Maybe the incredible scientists are getting it wrong in Italy? Global warming, I mean climate change anyone?
Maybe a few lies for US EU Cash? Maybe bad testing protocols? Who knows or cares? The number of deaths around the world is entirely insignificant in a statistical sense in a country of 60 million or a world of nearly 7 billion.

For the less cynical, accepting the Italian death count as true, what are 6,800 old and/or sick people who were near death who died from a respiratory ailment in the winter? What their deaths are is EXPECTED. Remember the flu? The world and the US are not getting any information about how these COVID 19 deaths relate to the flu deaths that happen worldwide year in and year out. All we get on the subject are ridiculous, idiotic statements about the fact that COVID 19, a disease that we can see has the exact symptom list and from what I can discern the same etiology, is NOT THE SAME AS that insignificant nothing disease "the seasonal flu."

No logic, no explanation, just shut up, be very very afraid and DO AS YOU ARE TOLD.

Edmond Watson • Mar 25, 2020 at 13:00

I prefer the video to the audio. Perhaps because I am hearing impaired and use close captioning, but also because I like to see Mark and the various guests and acts he has. That's why I like the cruises as well, and encourage all to partake. Wife and I are signed up for the next cruise, since the Alaska cruise was quite wonderful. Hope this all blows over (and I'm not dead) for the European cruise.

Don Reed

Edmond Watson • Mar 25, 2020 at 19:24

Yes. The deceased, for whatever reason, generally do not derive as much pleasure from the cruises as the rest of us. Unfortunately, however, they were alive when the cruise ships left their home ports in 2020.

Robert Stewart • Mar 25, 2020 at 12:49

There is a great commentary in the WSJ today by Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, "Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?" The two are professors of medicine at Stanford. It's behind a paywall, but they argue that the mortality rate may be overestimated by a factor of 30 to 70, say two orders of magnitude to keep things simple (and to avoid unwarranted specificity.) The reason is that it appears that the incidence of the disease is much higher than we might suppose. They mention a couple recent discoveries, such as the 10 positive tests in the NBA, which suggests that a percent or two of the population at large may already have had the disease. This is the "denominator" problem. If you underestimate it, the lethality of the disease is overestimated. Without a good understanding of the true nature of the pandemic, it is impossible to argue for any but the most extreme measures to stop it. So, in the present case, the problem is now considered to be nothing more complicated than "flattening the curve". One can argue that Italy's cutoff age of 60 for receiving hospitalization is an example of such a poorly thought out response.

This is analogous to the climate hoax, but with a time scale of months, not centuries. I've been enjoying your songs as I write this. Thanks for the memories!

Maggie Menzies

Robert Stewart • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:15

Robert, I agree that this situation is, 'analogous to the climate hoax.'
Perhaps it is proving more successful when you look at the financial chaos in the Western world, especially the US. What is happening now has far surpassed anything the Greenies or imposed carbon taxes had hoped to achieve?
Any comments been noted from Mann et alia?
p.s. Audio format is AOK!

Michael Johnston • Mar 25, 2020 at 12:46

The more audio the better. Great for working stiffs like me.

Mike • Mar 25, 2020 at 12:41

Prince Charles is just another example suggesting that the number of positive cases are simply being limited by the number of tests only. The high degree of celebrity and world leader infections is not because of their cosmopolitan lives wherein they interact more, but a product of the fact that they have been able to get tested even without symptoms and still show positive. This would indicate that the virus has already infected a much, much greater percentage of the population than advertised. But, and this the great thing - the number of deaths is probably reliable, for obvious reasons, as a person near death is in hospital and will be tested. So greater prevalence than reported, but with the same number of deaths as reported, indicates that the virus is much, much less lethal than the numbers of 2% or 1% that are being floated. I bet it is more like 1 in 1,000.

Robert Stewart

Mike • Mar 25, 2020 at 13:10

Mike, your point about the incidence of COVID-19 in our ruling elite being related more to the availability of testing for this group than to any unusual proclivity of these creatures to get the disease is spot on. The more we test, the more we find. If discovering gold worked this way our backyards would nothing but deep pits.

Perry Pattetic

Mike • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:28

The virus was in the wild during January, when Davos brought the elites together.
Lots of back-scratching, hand shaking, mwuh-mwuh dahling together.
They flew back home in their rented private jets, leaving the virus alive in the planes, for the next set of celebs to pick up, incubate and share.

Segnes Schonken

Perry Pattetic • Mar 25, 2020 at 19:01

Cool, P.: a silver lining at last!

Perry Pattetic

Segnes Schonken • Mar 25, 2020 at 19:57

Yes, S! It could be the equivalent of the terrible cull of the elites during WW1 but with less devastating consequences for Christendom. The Globalists might be headed for the exit.

George Pazin • Mar 25, 2020 at 12:32

Another wonderful piece. I'd prefer Mark's video mailbox, warts and all, but this is almost as good.

I'm almost embarrassed to admit, I was a believer in free markets opening up the right sort of world commerce, one of the guys Mark derisively and deservedly calls, the Chamber of Commerce guys. The biggest difference between me and them is I did so hesitantly, and reservedly. I felt it should be taken slowly, to see what emerged. And I will admit, what emerged was and is awful.

About 25 years ago, I was living in NYC and introduced to the expression, sometimes wrong, never in doubt. The thing is, a properly wise man (and I like to think of myself as such), will always, always be in doubt. And sadly, most of those bozos in NYC and now DC, Boston, the whole corridor of smart people who are too smart to get out of their own way, are never never ever ever in doubt. It doesn't matter how many times they are proven wrong, they never reflect, never question themselves, they merely shift on to other things.

I was wrong, and admit it. They were more wrong, and will never admit it. I have no power over anyone, save myself, they have power of damn near everyone, and don't hesitate to wield it.

Who should you fear? Me or them? I'm apparently a MAGAt, a new word I learned today. They are what? I'll leave you to answer that for yourself.

Tough times, tough times indeed.

Sometimes a society is too stupid to survive. A wise man has said that, more than a few times.

BallBounces in PEI

George Pazin • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:09

"A properly wise man will always, always be in doubt." Are you sure of this?

Tom Gelsinon

George Pazin • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:34

I was a believer in free trade as well, as long as the economic relationships were reciprocal. The North American Free Trade Agreement seemed to me at the time to be a good thing, since Canada, Mexico, and US are, more or less, allies, and the opening up of trade would benefit all. Over time, though, it became clear that US was on the short end of the deal in terms of lost jobs, and the huge influx of illegal aliens (more lost jobs and stress on the system). I never understood the reliance on China, where it can buy land, banks and even ports in the US, but does not allow other countries the same advantages in China, not to mention its theft of Western technology, and its aggressive military posture. And, right now the problems with China should be clear for all to see.

George Pazin

BallBounces in PEI • Mar 25, 2020 at 14:42

Now that's just beautiful, well done.

Reminds me of that clever phrase in a curiously thoughtful movie: [character 1] You're a clever guy. How's that working out for you? [character 2] (shrug) Pretty good. [character 1] Well, keep it up then,

George Pazin

Tom Gelsinon • Mar 26, 2020 at 14:22

Indeed. Those mirror my concerns. My biz - I print t shirts - is small and maybe pathetic, but it's mine and I built it from nothing. And I have no problem with someone who out-competes me in the right ways: works harder, willing to take less, puts out a better product for the same or less. But my concern from the start, and I suspect you had the same concerns and it's been born out, is that I am not competing on a level playing field. You hear this all the time in lib politics, yet they are only worried about fantasy, and never the reality that someone like me faces regularly.

What we have all come to discover is that the big companies - pharma, tech, and otherwise - have largely engaged in SLAVE LABOR. They aren't promoting free market trade, they are promoting unfair trade practices, and that's putting it mildly.

They're doing that, profiting wildly, and looking down their noses at suckers like me who are apparently tilting at windmills. And they're calling me a racist if I point out the abuses and inequities.

They're whores and slavemasters. And I'm sad that I ever agreed with them. They took advantage of my belief in the better nature of man.

Judith A Gerhardt • Mar 25, 2020 at 12:25

Please continue with this format!
I don't want to sit and have to watch all the shows I love to hear. This way I can do my chores, play with the cat, and do my gardening all the while listening to one of my favorites: Mark Steyn!

Susan Havey • Mar 25, 2020 at 12:07

Mark - I have heard it questioned...

How did the Democrats come up with a 1200 page document so fast?

To write a 1200 page bill had to have taken weeks, so in reality it was not a routine reply to the Senate bill but a manifesto in the works since Trump closed China travel.

Patricia Gillis • Mar 25, 2020 at 12:07

Wonderful...I'll join Laura with a coffee too...thanks!

Charlene Pinkava • Mar 25, 2020 at 11:54

Mark,
RE Italy: I read an article that stated Italy is the only G7 country that embraced China's Belt and Road and 3 large Italian cities have sister cities in China. One of these is in northern Italy. Considering the Hug A Chinaman initiative, have you seen statistics that show how many deaths in Italy are Italians vs how many are native to China?

Laura Rosen Cohen • Mar 25, 2020 at 11:33

YES!

Brewing up a second cup and having a listen!