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Just to clarify re Australia's deficiency of geopolitical backbone concerning Beijing: Mark is thinking of his old friends Alexander (of Huawei renown) and Julie (a defender of China's extradition treaty), but there's been a lot more spine shown with such pseudo-conservative types out of the picture. (Regrettably, former PM John Howard is *still* pushing his "pragmatism" mantra.)
For the record, Tony Abbott - as always - showed the kind of foresight and integrity so lacking amongst those on his side of politics, highlighted just months ago in his address on China at the Lowy Institute (November 28, 2019):
"It was much easier, though, to think that hard choices could be avoided when China seemed to be liberalising, on the reasonable grounds that freedom was ultimately indivisible, and that market competition would eventually lead to political competition too."
"But that was before the militarisation of the South China Sea was complete, before the internment of a million-plus Uighurs, before the development of the technology-backed social credit system designed to enforce conformism, and before Xi Jinping was declared president for life. Still, I'm confident that Australia would only ever choose between China and America, if China forced us to."
Right with you, K., but for further perspective I would like to point out that Australia's economy is heavily slaved to China's. Our blessed trades unions and their political arm, the Labour party, have ensured that Australia's secondary sector has gone, lock stock and barrel, the way of of the British shipbuilding and textile industries: there's not much left to speak of. We depend heavily, albeit not absolutely exclusively, on China for manufactured goods. Australia's primary sector output - agriculture, livestock and mining product - goes largely, albeit not exclusively, to China. The greatest part of our tertiary sector output which is sold to the open market (as opposed to simply being delivered to the state) is tertiary education, and China supplies much of the market for that, too.
We've got ourselves into a pretty pickle, and getting out of it will be no simple matter. We certainly wouldn't come out well from a war with China, even if we went into it hanging from the apron-strings of as powerful an ally as the United States, which wouldn't come awfully well out of it either, even if it were disposed to see it through, which disposition has been noteworthy for its absence in recent history. I think that the recent several positions taken by messrs Howard and Abbott need to be understood in that light. Sometimes the head does not allow one to go where the heart leads.
I mention all of this to bear out and elaborate upon your views about Australia's deficiency of geopolitical backbone concerning Beijing. If China can be said to have trapped the U.S. in a very clever knot, it has caught Australia in the same knot, this time crafted of steel cable.
Something has to be done before China arrives at the end-game; there's no question about that. We'll see whether Mr Trump can lead the way. I don't see that deal-making with China's incredible leaders can do the trick, but one lives in hope.
Meanwhile, our Labour party advocates pre-emptive surrender, bless them. They have our best interests at heart.
Yeah, right.
Re: Kansas City's 10-10-10 opening. I have been generally pleased with the way the state has handled all of this. Not crazy about this name & address deal but I believe that Platte county, where I live, has rescinded that. Our mayor, Lucas, still has a target date of 5/15 for full opening.
I beg of you, explain to me why Creepy Joe is 8 points up in Pennsylvania! Or anywhere.
Corrupt MSM pollsters and people such as myself who, if polled, tell them EXACTLY what they want to here.
I'm all in favor of lying so extensively, after Hidin' Joe Biden is pushed out to the sea on top of a Saltine cracker (or as they say in Wisconsin, "pizza!"), we create a nationwide "Draft Hitlery!" movement.
You see, I never had the chance to bamboozle Lillian Hellmann in 1968. So this will have to make up for lost time.
I can suggest an answer, J., but it is not one which promotes my good reputation in these purlieux. I'll do it anyway, damning the torpedoes and pretending that I have a leather hide. I never been persuaded by the view that Mr Trump's election reflected overwhelming confidence in or enthusiasm for Mr Trump's leadership. Rather, it seemed to me to reflect pretty widespread lack of confidence in and enthusiasm for Mrs Clinton's leadership. I think that the residual electoral challenge which Mr Trump faces (wittingly or no) is that there are more people in his electorate who would like him to go away than would like him to stay. I think that is what the polls reflect.
For the moment, most voters - wrongly, in my view, but that is immaterial - see little threat in an incoherent, doddering old codger exhibiting only moments of peevishness as he lingers around death's door. Once Mr Biden announces his running mate, the package will be a different one, and the polls will change. Most of the putative vice-presidential candidates seem to me to be quite off-putting, and that will draw Mr Biden's polling results in the direction of reality. It is of course not beyond the realms of possibility that he will find a really attractive running mate (heaven only knows where - Mrs Obama, perhaps?) and his polling will improve, the more dramatically because he obviously won't be around for long.
The election will not of course produce the same result as the polling, simply because elections in America are heavily determined, not by who wins public confidence, but by sections of the electorate which do not turn up to vote at all. I express some pretty nasty generalisations about Democrats on these boards, but I know that Mr Trump won the last presidential elections because a good number of Democrats are people of integrity and good sense who could not bring themselves to vote for Mrs Clinton. If Mr Biden decides to team up with any of the nastier horry rockers currently trying to woo him (meaning his minders), the same thing will surely happen again.
So, to get to the bottom line, the polls at this point reflect hopes rather than intentions. I think the boss-man has said that the choice of running-mate has never been so crucial in a presidential campaign, and I think that is right. That is not to deny that Mr Pence probably made it easier for many Republicans to reconcile themselves to the idea of Mr Trump as POTUS and come out to vote, and probably will do so again.
Mark,
I see the Montypythonish Richard Komi (Comey? - spelling?) is from your very own state!
Any comments?
Mark, true story: I am re-reading Passing Parade (personally signed by MS) for my nightly pre-sleep routine, and by happenstance, my second chapter last night was "Old-school copper". What do you think Jack Slipper would have to say about the behavior of coppers in the Corona era?
Many thanks.
Al Man
Mark, not to be redundant, but I have since heard after my question above ref Jack Slipper, that the Boris Johnson admin has decided not to release the report of the investigation of the coppers and their behavior in the Muslim rape gangs cases. What say you and again, what do you think Jack Slipper would say about all that?
Thanks for your patience.
Al Man
I'm not Mark, but may I suggest that Slipper would have gone down to Ladbrokes and collect his 25-pound wager on "the report will not be released/sealed" ?
Unfortunately, this being so predictable, the highest odds that he could get were only 1/9 (bet $2, collect $2.10 minimum).
He'll need a month to issue a 100% denial of that accusation.
Not only did the left abandon the "believe all women" rule, but they've made the incredible leap to saying "believe joe Biden"...the guy who was caught plagiarizing a law paper at Syracuse and later a welsh politician's speech in the 88 presidential campaign. The Joe Biden who is on record lying, not misspeaking, multiple times. Like saying he finished near the top of his class at law school when he finished next to last. Like lying about academic accolades he said he received.
This can't be lost on strategists on the left. But he's the trojan piñata and the means to getting a candidate in the general election without them having to endure dust-ups along the way. Unfortunately for them, the piñata may have broken open too soon.
Not just ANY Welsh politician - Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock, Kinnocchio, the Welsh Windbag, who lost to both Margaret Thatcher and John Major, and father-in-law of Helle Thorning-Schmidt, who unintentionally exposed the sinister side of Michelle Obama.
It speaks to Biden's intrinsic weirdness - you want to plagiarise, at least plagiarise off Churchill, JFK, or yes, Pierre Trudeau..... but Kinnock???
If we must believe all women, that of course means all men are liars, and that seems statistically unlikely. In his recent memoir, "Apropos of Nothing," Woody Allen penned the perfect response to absolutists spouting the line "Believe all women." He wrote, "Sure, tell that to the Scottsboro boys." (For those not up on their history, those are nine black teenagers sentenced to death for rape, based on false accusations by two white women in Scottsboro, Alabama in 1931.)
Joe Biden is giving the finger to #MeToo.
And the NYT has just given it to Joe "Hidin'" Biden (05/03/20).
Two observations that popped into my mind that I wanted to get your thoughts on. First, there seems to have been a complete reverse in "scientific" thought since the Ebola outbreak a few years back when the government and media elite fought against any idea of quarantining recent returnees from the outbreak.
Second, we seem to have a Grenfell type disaster erupting on the Midwest in areas surrounding meat packing plants that are seemingly heavily staffed with a "refugees" and "undocumented immigrants" from third world areas. Concerning Grenfell the firefighters were blamed instead of overcrowding, illegal sublets, and blocked fire escapes ect. There have been reports bubbling to the surface of meat packing plants being closed due to covid-19 outbreaks and Trump has used his powers to order them to remain open. However, there has been an almost total lack of curiosity in the media as to the underlying causes of why meat packing plants seem to be more heavily hit by outbreak than other factories.
Very astute, Marie. When the media is not curious, something definitely rotten must be going on. Something I heard mentioned a couple months ago in our local paper perhaps is when it looked as if our border area was barely being nicked by the virus, was that there would be a second wave coming from across the border later because we hadn't heard much in the way of numbers from Mexico. And even though Mexico closed their northern border with us, it doesn't mean nothing or nobody is getting across. There are probably still areas, including the port entries, where the coyotes and drug operators get through; the trade still happens and other travelers with dual citizenship coming and going. In Mexico they order two week quarantines for people arriving by plane with symptoms but I wonder how effective that is as people can also be asymptomatic for a period of time. There's still not a foolproof method of making everyone safe and maybe never will be. Almost all of the cases in our border county seem to be in the zip codes nearest to El Paso which is also exactly where the Santa Theresa point of entry is located
Gallup, New Mexico is under some sort of state of emergency, but I looked and it so not a border city.
That's the center of the Navajo nation and they've been severely impacted by the virus. I believe Gov. Grisham was able to legally block roads to that town based on some law that enabled her to do so during a state of emergency. The Governor also has eased us back to work some yesterday on golf courses (with pages and pages of guidelines) and pet groomers which both opened up here yesterday. I think she was following the lead of the NJ Governor and also seeing push back around the state.
I agree with Fran. Very astute observation. I live in one of the states that you are talking about. Although I have no sympathy for the companies that operate these packing plants because of their getting away with employing semi-slave labor in the form of illegal immigrants, the media around here has been unfairly lambasting the plant operators because they think the outbreaks originated inside the plants and were spread that way. There's no proof of that. In fact it's absurd to come to that conclusion. If the truth were known, the outbreak among the plant workers probably originated in their residences where it's common for up to a dozen or more of these workers to share a two or three bedroom house or apartment, because they cannot afford to have a place of their own. At these residences, there are also people who work in restaurants where the virus could have been picked up and spread that way. A lot of these people receive their healthcare services in emergency rooms and they often are crowded together in the waiting rooms. The likelihood is some plant workers picked up the virus outside the plants and took it with them when they went to their shifts. But those angles are never investigated or even mentioned. It's the evil corporate giant who couldn't be bothered to do rudimentary cleaning and sanitizing of their facility to provide a safe environment for their slaves. It's always their fault.
There are certainly areas where they continue to stream across the border and the parade is non-stop here in Arizona and I assume New Mexico as well. I live 17 miles from the border and there are virtually no cases of Covid-19 in our community because the 'immigrants' quickly pass through bound for whereabouts unknown. You can bet that drug shipments are arriving on time - they have it down to a science now utilizing hi-tech and other tried and true methods to avoid detection. By the way Fran in the 4 rural counties in SE Arizona where I live in a total population of 233,000 there are 81 confirmed cases and a single death yet we remain in lockdown until the15th with just a few exceptions which began yesterday. Our republican governor's direct deposit salary payments continue to roll in on schedule so no worries for him and his family or his staff and medical 'experts' who shut down most businesses they deemed non-essential. The man's arrogance is simply staggering.
Spot on, Marie. I love trying to deconstruct press stories by 'what they don't say'. Have you read what Upton Sinclair and Eric Schlosser had to say about the slaughtering and packing industry? I can't imagine it has been improved by further unskilled, foreign labour. Corona in the mix is the icing on a towering cake of offal.
I'll have to look again at numbers here, as it sounds very similar to those same three categories. Weird. As much of a long shot as it sounds, call your Governor's office and even if you don't get the Governor personally, tell someone in that office why your area should be open now. Believe it or not, my husband called Wednesday while I was commenting away and he told Grisham's assistant that we need to open up down here because people were hurting, to the point that truckloads of essentials were being packed and donated to our community from Duke City. The boxes flew out to outreached arms as fast as they could be unloaded. He asked for golf courses to be open and next day, what do you know. He says he may have been one of fifty calls, we'll never know. As you don't know if there are fifty or five thousand others in your county/counties feeling your frustration and fury maybe it could be as simple as flooding his office with non-stop calls. Good luck, the push back seems to working in other area, RAC. Everyone's getting sick of sitting around and biding our time, too. We can't wait until May 15th. Life goes on for people, too, who aren't receiving steady paychecks.
I agree and I also wonder if any elements of the green movement are involved with the protests.
We seem to be having outbreaks at the plants, but are we really? The CDC is reporting nearly half the deaths due to covid that the media is reporting. It's not like the media has a very good track record of telling the truth.
We all know here the MSM is just one part of the Democratic Party's operation. Jim Jordan just came on with Brian Kilmeade (or was it Ken Matthews in for Rush) one morning this week and basically said, everyone knows it now and didn't even want to waste airtime discussing it, just a fact now. Unfortunately, most people in the country who don't listen to talk radio or FOX don't. Scary times.
Excellent point, M. Raises uncomfortable questions about unbuilt walls, too.
That's a good point, Robert. Indoor proximity is a veritable "viral Petri dish" - especially where hygiene is further compromised by over-crowding etc. The reported outbreaks at the meat plants might be a reflection of living conditions rather than the work environment per se. Either way, it's a reminder of the "the jobs Americans won't do" - especially when they are undercut by imported semi-slave labour. It all goes back to the Trump 2016 platform, as Mark noted at the time (and since).
PS. The Singapore experience - initially hailed as a huge success - highlights the issue of over-crowding:
"Singapore's cramped migrant worker dorms hide Covid-19 surge risk" (The Guardian April 17, 2020):
~ The health ministry reported 728 new cases on Thursday, the biggest rise in a single day, as medical teams raced to test and isolate workers living in vast dormitory blocks.
~ While Singapore has been lauded for its rapid and comprehensive approach to contract tracing, officials have been accused of overlooking the dormitories, where thousands of workers live in close quarters and between 12 and 20 men might share a single room.
Hmm... the issue of meat - specifically - made me wonder about AOC types taking advantage of the situation. Mark has already noted other elements of the Green New Deal.
Another thought that popped into my mind concerning the accuracy of coronavirus stats and lack of information about the virus transmission meat packing plants as epicenters , is that speculation and suspicions runs rampant. I know this may be a stretch, but it reminded me of when some time ago, the issue of "superinjunctions" in the U.K. to protect wealthy celebrities from being exposed as adulterers led to open speculation as to who was really involved so that uninvolved people had their names dragged into the scandal as possible adulterers. Likewise it may be that some businesses are being wrongly suspected of misconduct vis a vis they're handling of the Chinese virus because the cdc and local health departments are attempting to suppress accurate information.
Exactly what I was thinking!
I think I read them years ago and am familiar with their contents
Same for Canada - only Rebel News is covering the facts on concentration of 'TFWs' may = COVID hotspot and the hypothesis should be investigated not buried.
Another factoid is Sayyid Qutb, author of Signposts along the Way - and the father of modern jihad developed his virulent anti-western attitudes while working in the mass pens and abattoirs of Greely Colorado ( as featured in the book Fast Food Nation).
I was not aware that Gallup is a commercial center for a number of different Native American tribes not just Navajos, Zunis, some Pueblo tribes, and I heard that since they have their own government they really don't need to abide by all of the laws set by the state. I heard that they had cancelled some celebration that may have been opened to the public because of the virus but they held their own private celebrations and that may be what triggered the outbreak there. The other thing that puzzles me is that while state by state restrictions vary, travel between states is happening freely as cars go up and down the interstate between here and Texas without any state line border checks. That's to the East. Now I need to drive to Phoenix tomorrow, so we'll see if there are any health checks going west. There weren't a month ago.
Biden called me "the dregs of society" for daring to refuse Clinton the right to be Empress.
I guess the rest of the Trump base assumes that they are not included in his dregs, but here's the thing - how can he tell whether or not a TV is a dreg?
Last night (Friday) on Tucker he featured some Wisconsin Wanker Cops who were bugging a Mom who had set up a play date in her yard for her little girl. if you haven't seen the episode, check it out. Infuriating.
All these types of problems are 100% predictable from a societal shutdown. This is Reason Number 19,585 why societal shutdown should never be on the table as a policy option.
I've gotta say King K I always feel a bit less depressed when I come across your entries. Confining our populace in their homes and shutting down businesses they deem 'non-essential' must NEVER be an option again no matter what the claimed state of emergency. I remain shocked to my core how sheep like Americans so quickly rolled over and submitted to this still ongoing nightmare. To say this doesn't bode well for our future is a hell of an understatement to put it mildly - but where do we turn now King? Republicans have behaved no better than Democrats in inflicting this tyranny on America and most conservatives caved as well. It all was for 'our own safety' and this will now be the new template for future 'emergencies'. 'Twilight's last gleaming' for America and in just 4 months.
"Republicans have behaved no better than Democrats in inflicting this tyranny on America," you write, R. There is no way for me to underline that point other than quoting it, and that is what I have done. To explain my own frustration, I'll quote some other bloke: "If you prick us, do we not bleed? If you tickle us, do we not laugh? If you poison us, do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge?" And wouldn't we just love to, if only we could think of a way to get it done?
Goes for the damned 'flu as well as the idiotic response to it, fiscal mismanagement, failure to disband the UNO and rescind endorsement of all UNO resolutions and to create a Pacific counterpart to NATO, and much besides. We have been pricked more than Granny's roast. Shall we never revenge?
The Brit Wanker Copper of the Day showed up in Maine yesterday in the form of Gov. Janet Mills, who took away the liquor license of Sunday River Brewing owner Rick Savage for daring to open up and try to save his establishment. We have to find a way to help folks like this.
As Tucker Carlson pointed out on Fox...Frau Mills has absolute power in Maine... total power. This brings back an old phrase from the Clinton years...."Stroke of the pen, rule of the land... cool". This is the downhill course of history that a revolution was fought over... the exact words used to describe King George III are being used for real in the USA. (That she also backs Herr Gropenfuhrer Biden is natural.)
The Mainers will be singing a different tune before long, with their precious tourism industry having been evaporated per "Mitlery Dictat" ("Jawohl, Mein Lobsterfuhrer!").
It's a whole new deal up there, because JUST ONE bad year imprisons the imprisoned for many years to come, and boy ho boy do they know and fear that possibility.
Remember, Maine's enormous coastline is impossible to police, so whatever is banned will be carted around like the bootleggers of a century ago.
Shostakovitch
music
sounds
distressed to westerners.
Eleven minutes of applause
to Joe , stop clapping and you will die.
Hollywood deplores anti Communist hysteria.
In Britain, now, it is, "Clap the NHS, or you will deserve to die."
Shostakovich, I believe, was hardly a Stalin groupie. He said his seventh symphony, the rather weak "Leningrad" one, was prompted as much by the pre-War purges as by the German siege.
I wish the NHS would get the clap and go away. I can hardly bear to see the Royals joining this little love-in. I have great respect for a number of people who do their civic jobs well. Others, less so. But I also trust that most of them are remunerated appropriately via our tax dollars. I know that isn't always the case but I'd prefer to pay them more than have to pay them and obligatorily worship ground they walk on as well.
Jog on, NHS.
I did a check and there was a report that of all places the ACLU did on how quarantines violated civil liberties during the Ebola outbreak of 2014-2015. The report was titled: Fear, Politics, and Ebola. How quarantines hurt the fight against Ebola and violate the constitution. Fast forward to now and where are these experts that said this five or so years ago? Being a liberal run institution, it's no suprise we have no one bring this up from there and make a correlation to today's pandemic. Now they view quarantine, isolation, and totalitarianism as the solution.
Nice post, B.
What, you discovered double standards? by lefties? No!!! Impossible!!! Racist-homophobe-all-that-utter-dung!!!
Well spotted.
As well as the panopticon surveillance state, a feature of the 21st century plague is testing (and tracing) - and the ability to precisely quarantine the infectious for a temporary period.
Quarantine - as it's supposed to work - was explained by the late Dr Charles Krauthammer in the context of Ebola: "Quarantine is the ultimate violation of civil liberties. Having committed no crime, having done no wrong, you're sentenced to house arrest or banishment. It's unfair, it's un-American, but if an epidemic threatens, when it does we do it because we must. Viruses don't wait. The sooner we reset the balance, the sooner we get serious."
That's what the Taiwanese did at the first sign of Covid-19 (including isolation of arrivals etc). In contrast, Dr Fauci's delay resulted in "quarantine" being used wholesale on vast untested populations to keep them under house arrest indefinitely (where transmission - in the home environment - is not insignificant). And the left is loving its new-found power over the people.
PS. Another great show, by the way.
It was indeed a great show, not least because it elicited from you an answer to a question I'd put to you in earlier thread, K. Now that I have learnt from you that the purpose of testing would be to identify people with the virus so that they can be isolated before they infect anybody else, I have a sense of the requisite scale and repetition of the necessary testing. It's immense. To really do the arithmetic, one needs more information - the incubation time-cycle of the virus and the cost of every inoculation, for instance, but on the face of it, it will be impossible to keep up a testing programme of sufficient intensity to make any substantial difference for long. You have gone beyond simple problems like the questions of cost and sustainability which entertain small minds like mine to address what would be involved in effectively isolating infected people, and I agree entirely with your conclusions in that matter too. Testing is not going to solve the problem. It might delay the development of herd immunity temporarily and probably would achieve that delay very expensively. It would certainly work well for the power-loving left, and all who like to sweat those in their power.
Glad I don't have to solve the problem. I have my hands full merely keeping my temper in check when I go shopping. It is a rare shop nowadays which has not found some way to sweat customers without in any meaningful way reducing exposure in any number of ways to the risk of infection. Mind you, I'm a grouchy old codger at the best of times, possessed of stupid notions like: "You unskilled service person, me accursed damn' nuisance customer; me pay, you @*+!! serve." I'm beyond forgiveness, a dinosaur in the twenty-first century.
Kate, you may have already discussed this earlier but one of the things that I would like to hear talked about is this aspect of the testing: how good is testing if the testing only reports what is a positive or negative result at the specific point one is tested?
Being tested doesn't mean that next week you couldn't come in contact with a spreader. I'm wondering if testing is as useful now as educating people about the early symptoms and doing temperature checks as people head into some crowded arena as things behind to open up.
I agree, it was another good program. I learn something new each time and this one wanker cop story reminded of how much I miss going to chamber music concerts.
You answered my question to Kate about testing, S.! I should've read your reply twice over first.
SE Asian examples show that *early* quarantine of all arrivals, and testing-tracing-isolating of (early) positive cases are extremely effective containment measures: the "lockdown" - of individuals - ensures that community transmission doesn't accelerate out of control in the first place. On enforcement, a cut-and-paste comment from early March on Israel's approach: "Police will help catch Israelis who break quarantine", and "law enforcement will monitor Israelis returning from abroad".
The epic public health failure overseen by Fauci - based on the synchronicity with WHO guidelines that Mark mentioned - allowed unchecked community transmission to reach epidemic proportions; testing is now much less effective (and must be much more extensive) as a mitigation measure, and is further complicated by (presumed) asymptomatic spread. The roll-out of antibody tests will be very useful, and so far indicates that herd immunity is a long way off in many regions.
FYI - on R0 and effective reproduction - see "When will it be over?" - Jeffrey K Aronson, CEBM, April 14, 2020.
PS. Tests are also important for "diagnosis" of cause-of-death, including post mortem. Many of the "suspected" deaths in the US reflect an inability to confirm (ie. lack of testing). This is particularly obvious in affected developing countries. Worldwide, the "spikes" in mortality in areas where there are outbreaks suggest that Covid deaths have been grossly under-reported.
That's right, Fran - the problem with swab tests is that they are only a "snap shot" that won't reflect past or future infection in that individual. The other problem is the high false negative rate of the swab tests - around 30%.
The serology tests - for antibodies - will be very useful.
PS. I love the signature Steyn show... the mix of interesting historical asides, varied musical interludes, audio archives, and current affairs commentary is very unique. Not to mention the "Passing Parade". A very polished and professional production!
Yes, very professional and fine work, indeed, Kate. Sobering, too, while creating an odd mix of big picture, little snapshots, jocularity, scornfulness, tears of sorrow, and yet, joy at being reminded what awe inspiring skills the human spirit can master. Not sure how one can pull it off again and again, each one unique, but it must be a very special gift!
Thanks, K. Certainly, testing would be much less expensive and much more sustainable if it were confined to arrivals, upon arrival, and the dead. What happens in "testing-tracing-isolating of (early) positive cases"? I presume that a case is diagnosed as "positive" and then that "positive" patient is tested by way of confirmation before tracing occurs, which sounds manageable to me, but I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed and there may be more testing than that involved. Tracing is a puzzle to me in its own right. I find the simple arithmetic appalling, particularly if a coefficient has to be factored in for the tests' potential for error, if the patient in question had, in the incubation window, done little more than use a commuter bus or railway to visit a supermarket or greengrocer, taken a few walks by way of exercise and passed a few people doing likewise, and purchased a few newspapers from the corner convenience shop - unless of course all that stuff about how widespread and communicable the virus is, and how long it lives in the air, on cardboard, plastic and what have you is utter tripe - and I'm entirely open to persuasion on that score, given the sources of my information.
But you've shed invaluable light already. If reliance were being placed on testing the entire population at intervals determined by the incubation period of the cycle, I'd despair, because I can't see that happening. My money is on inoculation, and that doesn't seem to be happening either. Still, cometh the hour...!
You're too kind, F. You'll get a better answer from K., for sure.
S., this test topic is just going to have to go into the mental file in my head that says : "the more you know, the more you don't know." Or, "you don't know what you don't know." Or, "it will finally all come together when we have more data."
I decided to call my doctor to see if I should take the test, and he said, "it really wouldn't do you any good." Even though we discussed both kinds, it's now my understanding that there are many kinds of the non-serology tests out and they all have their limitations. See what I mean about sorting my mental files this way?
Maybe this would've been a different answer had we been going to visit our grandchildren out in LA County. But they don't want us coming calling right now anyway, since we'll just be stuck on the property so I guess I'm going to just continue to gather information until we know more. I've gotten information overload some months back.
For now, I'll focus on what's just in my little home orbit. It's enough right now. We're all experiencing and collecting our personal Chinese virus anecdotes in the meantime. I'm getting the big picture though, and that's we've had the most colossal upending to our lives in this lifetime thanks to China. About the vaccine, seems record time work is being done from bits I hear, here and there, and we might see one in January. That seems a long way off to me.
A belated thank-you, K. I've just read "'When will it be over?': An introduction to viral reproduction numbers, Ro and Re" (2020) by Aronson, Brassey & Mahtani. It is a useful outline of the meanings of the statistics cited by journalists and politicians, many of whom would also benefit by a reading of the article. Aronson and his associates come to the sensible bottom line that, whereas we certainly need those coefficients to plan a response meaningfully, sufficiently reliable data on the basis of which to compute them still remains unavailable. They politely do not say that policy responses to date have been based on guesses - best guesses, kindly put. I hope that others will also read the article, if only for the fun of busting journalists who try to baffle with information which they have not properly mastered.
Not sure how I missed your post of 3 May, F. Sorry.
As ever, you have cut to the core of everybody's predicament: we're all in the dark. Perhaps we're asking the wrong questions, because the "experts" can't supply definitive answers to the questions we do ask. They're in the dark too. Perhaps we're asking the wrong questions. Perhaps we should be asking why policies are being made on the basis of bad information which have such immense consequences - immense negative consequences, to be clear - without even being sure of what they hope to achieve.
I'm not a betting man at the best of time, but I can tell an idiotic bet when I see it. One bets heavily on good information, not guesswork.
None of which is to say that I don't hope for a vaccine to materialise, and to do so sooner rather than later. January, you say? If the accounts of the rates of contagion are accurate, we'll all have had it by then, lockdown or no. Herd immunity will have been achieved as nature runs its course, and us obstreperous old codgers will all be dead. Well, so they promise us. I can promise in return that lots of survivors will be wishing they were dead too as a result of insane policies which amounted to nothing more than bad bets with other people's money.
Sorry: caught me in a melancholic moment. I think I need to get back to my own little home orbit. Something by Suzi Quatro, I think. In her day, she wouldn't even have bothered herself with learning to spell "coronavirus". Should rouse me; might rouse the suburb. Like I care. Okay, feeling better already.
Every day, sometimes within one hour, even two minutes I hear contradictory info. I heard it announced between talk show segments that 3,000 would die each day, the next minute I hear that the numbers of deaths are coming down. I heard last night on Tucker, the virus is neither getting stronger nor weaker, so is stable. This morning I heard it is weakening.
We have an extra confusing situation because "experts" who have been advising the president to shut down the economy are Leftists and Democrats just as in the climate science we have "experts" who have ties to the Leftists and Democrats. They all hate President Trump. Add to the mix we have a very important election year, and either way it falls we're not going to be in the same world we were living in six months ago. To make matters even worse there are all kinds of wild conspiracy theories circulating on the internet. I'm going to pay attention but I'm going to take everything coming in now under advisement. Trust nobody, is almost where I'm at now.
I heard Dr. Siegel in this morning and he's optimistic about three labs coming close to a vaccine. One of the labs is somehow connected to Anthony Fauci. Every day this goes on, I smell a fresh rat.
Thanks, F. Rat-sniffers of the world unite: you have nothing to lose but your illusions. It's right there, in the Communist Manifesto. No? And I was so sure I'd read it there. Bit like folk who "read" things in the Koran which were never there, I guess, but wouldn't it just spice up the fun if they were!
Meanwhile, so many rats to smell, so little time to smell them all. This conversation is becoming rough.
S., I heard today Yale and Johns Hopkins both came out and said this virus is not like the flu, that the flu season is over and this virus does not behave in onset or progress of severe cases. Influenza and Coronavirus do not have same MO and this coronavirus does not behave like a cold. You can go to a Yale website and see a comparison chart if you want to clear your head at the end of a day with a few dry martinis. (I wish the liquor stores would open already, tired of standard fare). So whenever I get bite-sized bits of info I'll post them (if we can believe them) and build on what we know might be true.
Thanks, F. You stay strong, in the meantime.
P.S.: Already thanked you for helping to enlighten me, F. Big job, that. What follows might shed light, might not:
+ "Influenza: Pathology: an acute, commonly epidemic disease, occurring in several forms, caused by numerous rapidly mutating viral strains and characterized by respiratory symptoms and general prostration."
+ "Influenza: medical definition: Influenza is an acute viral infection of the respiratory tract which is considered to be one of the life-threatening infectious diseases."
+ "Influenza A: the most common type of influenza. These strains have a high propensity for antigenic change resulting in mutations, partly because they can infect various animals where dual infections can occur, giving rise to new hybrid strains. The infections occur in epidemics, which may occur every 2 - 3 years and may vary in size and severity; perhaps the most important of the three types of influenza (A, B, and C). [...]
Influenza B: influenza caused by strains of influenza virus type B; outbreaks are usually more limited than those due to influenza virus type A, although infections by the two types are clinically indistinguishable; occasionally associated with Reye syndrome. [...]
Influenza C: influenza caused by strains of type C influenza virus; the disease is milder than that caused by types A and B and has become uncommon in recent years. [...] An influenza virus which causes non-epidemic, cold-like illness."
Wow, don't definitions make one sound knowledgeable? Type C influenza virus? We all know about that: it's the one we take vitamin C for, isn't it? Piece of cake, this stuff. Reye syndrome? Brought on by X-reyes, I suppose. And now that I know all that, what do I know? What's in a name, anyway? I'm far too old to play the game in which we pretend that all who do not call the thing by the ordained name are heretical or stupid. Coronavirus sounds viral to me. Sounds contagious. Sounds unhealthy, especially for the lungs. Sounds like 'flu, walks like 'flu, coughs like 'flu.... Might have evolved in China; might not. How on earth would I know? The Chinese found it and they can keep it ... or rather I wish they had kept it. No holding back a socialist bent on sharing and sharing alike, evidently. My use of crosses to mark different definitions instead of conventional bullets might be significant, but, then again, it might not. Again, I wouldn't know
We do have fun, don't we, though? Scatological as my idea of fun is. ;)
I'll file this away in my "to study" box, S.
Do you remember about three weeks ago I told you something about there being one Covid-19 patient at my daughter's hospital where she worked in SoCal but not as a doctor on the front lines? Now she says everyone has it! We suspect that the more tests that are given to people the more people are testing positive. So the virus is spreading around in the hospitals among the healthy health care people but anecdotally from her observations only the very sick and elderly are dying from it. Also, the tests are not totally reliable. Go figure! Like I think I heard Mark said yesterday, or in the previous Coronacopia, the experts still don't have a good handle on the specifics of this particular virus.
Oops, meant to say that this Covid-19 virus does not behave in same way either in onset or progress in severe cases like the flu. The biggest complaint I hear from my daughter is that they are changing the way they do almost everything now. The health care people are having to make big adjustments to normal protocol. On the family front, she still can't take the children to the park or beach still but I think she said the day cares are all opening up again June 1st. She never understood why that wasn't considered essential with all the people who still had to go to work. She thinks it's insane what is going on.
Thanks, F.: useful insights. Please tell your daughter that she has support for her diagnosis of insanity. I refer, of course, to what's going on, not to your daughter's own sanity. For my money, she represents the gold standard in the matter of sanity.
"We suspect that the more tests that are given to people the more people are testing positive." Spot-on. I hope that everybody still reading will appreciate the importance of that observation which, if accurate (as I think it is), underscores the importance of distinguishing "dying from the coronavirus" from "dying with the coronavirus". For obvious reasons, lefties don't like to draw that distinction.
Don't bother studying those definitions, please. I included them to demonstrate the latitude inherent in them, and added a paragraph to emphasise that I for one am none the wiser for them. Perhaps we expect too much from the scientific community. Aren't the politicians having a ball, though?
Is there any chance that the Brit Wanker Cop of the day is aware of his award?
"Pack up your troubles in your old kit bag". The thing that fascinates me most about such old songs is that they could not be written today. So many like this express a positive affirmation of life in a most desperate and forbidding context. Truth and the reality of the situation had to be faced. That's just the nature of life. We seem incapable of this now. I think it is because every shred of our existence has been politicized. We are not anchored in anything other than political calculations. We fear the thought police even if we don't see them. Politics may destroy my life at any moment if I take the incorrect attitude. Our culture is one of political neurosis. I do not wish to live there but everything has been poisoned. I have trouble packing up my troubles in my old kit bag even though I know I should. Fighting the war of omnipresent political calculation is a disheartening struggle. There is no clear-cut hope of victory or just resolution in sight.
As part of the centenary for WWI, I picked up an Aussie CD "Remembrance" with Alan Jones and Nathan Lay. Many of the songs Mark has featured include "Pack you your troubles". Before George Will went insane with TDS he noted that if the American Civil War was fought with today's populace the US would be a nation divided. That would also apply to winning WWI and WWII. I think the US gave up on winning with the Korean War... winning with "Conan the Barbarian" decisiveness. Staring at the biological attack from China and its unfolding destruction of the West...there should be white hot fury... but all it has done is spawn or unmasked gubernatorial fiefdoms and self -inflicted decimation.
I thought something similar a while ago, learning that the great Sir Harry Lauder responded to the news that his son, his only child, had been killed in the trenches by writing one of his great hits, "Keep Right On Till The End Of The Road".
A stark contrast to the sort of maudlin self-absorbed whining that gets put out by "celebrities" these days when the universe fails to gratify their every wish.
In other words, "Trump got suckered by a midget virologist" won't work as an electoral platform, even though it's true.
As Stephen McIntyre says @ClimateAudit: "But instead of taking ownership of their misjudgement [in under-estimating the virus] Fauci and CDC have let Trump be blamed for problems that were not really of his making [...] any fault was not Trump's failure to listen to "science", but scientists' failure to give in real time the advice that they would now give with 20-20 hindsight. [...] But Fauci hasn't manned up. Instead, he does his little winks and waves to the Democrat press gallery."
The lack of of compelling evidence for the drug remdesivir as "a new standard of care" - now FDA approved - makes Fauci and Co look increasingly self-interested and swampy.
It seems to me, and I have an imperfect understanding of the American electoral system, that Joe Biden stands a very good chance of becoming President. He already has big states such as California and New York in the bag, as they will always vote for the Dem candidate come what may, and then he has only to flip a couple of other states, Florida and Pennsylvania for instance, and he is home free. The fact he is an old white guy with a sketchy grasp on the present, and an even murkier past, won't matter as his opponent is also old and white (orange?) and has been portrayed for the last four years as a mentally ill predator who will ruin us all. The fault for the Great Pandemic, with its death toll and wrecked economy, will be firmly tied to Trump's tail if it hasn't been already. Add to that the fact that Biden will definitely choose a woman as VP ( Michelle Obama? Hillary Clinton?) and all sexual misconduct allegations against him will magically be nullified. He may be senile but he holds a lot of winning cards. Another great show Mark by the way :)
His wife is holding the cards for him. Just in case he attempts to play them. And it's 1944 all over again.. but this time there are only Henry Wallaces to choose from.
I don't think that President Trump's supporters have given up on him, although I do think that he needs his rallies to give him confidence and to inform his read on his supporters. I do think that only about 52% of the population supports President Trump. If the dems can squeeze out enough harvested votes and illegal alien votes and force 'rank choice' voting through in states like Maine they may be able to shove Biden over the finish line. He's too senile to realize that once he gets there his life is forfeit. If hilary is his VP he'll commit Arkancide shortly after the inauguration. If it's ms. obama or Oprah or some other celeb status leftist he'll die an untimely death within a year. Then the dems get to trumpet that the the first woman president is theirs and identity politics continues on for the next eight years as it did with obama.
I'm still predicting Kamala Harris. She failed to catch on during the Dem debates - but her Euro-Indo-Afro ancestry, attractiveness and, superficially at least, pleasant demeanor and articulateness would make her a viable running mate. But if there is a Biden presidency - and one can't rule out a "draft Cuomo" movement at the convention - I give it two years before he voluntarily resigns or the 25th Amendment is invoked. My other prediction - and I like to make dire predictions on the assumption that if I make them they won't come true - is for Florida-2000-style recounts in several "battleground" states as Democratic mail-in and harvested ballots are challenged in court.
Ugh! I hope not! Not her. Not ms. obama. Either of them would be insufferable. Besides, if either of them became president this country would be over. obama almost succeeded in destroying America. Those two would finish the job.
Mine is that as much attention should be paid to anticipating the events of 10/31/20 and 11/06/20. Also, the exact three weeks prior to the election (11/03/20) are going to be a sheer madness.
I'm voting for Ms Abrams of Georgia, C. (or would if I could, anyway). She'd sink the Biden campaign without trace. no need for resignation or the twenty-fifth. Or what about Mrs Waters? That would be good.
Or, as a hedge best, why not some youth in the form of Ms Ocasio-Cortez or Mrs Tlaib? The sustained crescendo of idiocy emanating from the white house if the ticket were to succeed would surely be commemorated as the world's eighth wonder.
We can't deny our children that delight, for sure.
I think back to 9/11 and how our "intelligence" agencies had the terrorists on their radar but chose not to do anything. I wonder if it was because of identity politics or pure incompetence that caused 9/11 to happen. Like 9/11, the Wuhan virus should be an example to us all on holding agencies that are supposed to be looking out for the people instead of the interests of a communist run country. Our nation will always have enemies but our institutions that are supposed to protect us from them need to do their jobs. The WHO is supposed to represent the interests of the entire world but instead represent the views and support the interests of the Chinese government. By not doing their job, they become just another farcical front like the METOO movement.
There was a quote somewhere, sometime, about obituaries: we are being informed of a person's death before we were informed that they were alive.
I listen to Mark's thumbnail sketches of some somewhat famous person (who I never heard of) that is compelling and sympathetic, only to find that he or she died of coronavirus, at age blankety-blank. It personalizes covid-19 in a way that affects me more than the daily body counts do.
Death in general is one thing, death in particular is another. These personal, particular, instances cause more unease and dread, at least in me, than the latest forecast of upcoming waves of infection and death.
Mark, we are trying to stay strong: please help us. Are there no similar stories of famous old actors, singers, musicians, writers - who have had it and then survived the 'plague'? It would help us pack up our troubles in our old kit bags and smile, smile, smile.
Just a thought.
The Incontinent Dromedary. I'm still laughing.
Don't laugh at the imams and their cures for the Chi-Flu-roo-deva om. Do they sound any loopier than our lot drinking fish tank cleaner or gargling with apple cider vinegar? After hearing your report, Mark, I don't mind telling you I went straight out and irrigated a camel's anus with a quart of my urine. You may think the anus-basting was the hard part, but I actually had a devil of a time finding a camel to begin with. Thank god for the zoo. Anyway, my technique consisted of...what's that, Fran? Beg pardon, Kate? I was supposed to do WHAT? From a CAMEL? Do I at least get salted almonds with that? How about I substitute a quart of warm Bud Light? It's not like anyone would know the difference.
Well, "a quart of my urine" had me laughing for 10 minutes. That, and the search for a camel. Has it been peer reviewed?
As for things that might work (which RAC has drawn attention to): Although hydroxychloroquine shows no benefit in severe/ late cases, the anecdotal basis for its prophylactic/ early use is convincing - something which Fauci and co seem determined to ignore, presumably in defiance of Trump.)
PS. Apparently the fish tank cleaner was a case of mariticide.
Brilliant, J. I'll drink to that.
I went into a mosque and ordered a cup of camel urine and the imam asked me, "one hump or two?"
You're not going to believe this, Josh, but a mile south of the university which is a couple stones throw away, there's a feed store with two camels out in the pens, just sitting there, well, until just the other day. They were just feeding them out. So they said! Until someone heard about the camel cure recipee.
Reminds me of the old cigarette ad tagline - "I'd walk a mile for a Camel."
Haha! They also had some buffalo, llamas and ostriches. It was the camels that I would like to visit up close, (I love when they move their chops while they're munching) especially during the two Tales For Our Times that featured camels, Calvert. Remember which ones? When I need to bolt out, I used to take a spin, and while just a mile south there are no safe places to walk along the frontage roads, to get some ice cream and walk outdoors to watch them.
The Biden allegations and the hypocritical double standard that the Left and its pals in the MSM are part of a broader disease. Vlogger Stephan Molyneaux had a good comment on that point in the context of this issue. It's all like a sports match. The fans' reaction to the ref's call is not based on any objective sense of justice, just on whether it's the home or visiting team that is getting nicked. Politics is seldom more noble than that.
In 1993, Joe 'Hill' Biden saw what Teddy Kennedy and Chris Dodd were up to and said 'Waitress Sandwich....hmm...I gonna beat them with an Open-Faced Sandwich, man'.
A friend of mine, going back over 30 years, had a stroke a couple of years ago. Not major.
He is a raving Dem - back when I knew him first, he would have been totally with Trump if Trump ran as a Dem.
He has a Pittsburg accent - sounds just like Biden, when Joe is not pretending to be a southern good ol' boy but wants to be a blue collar guy - and he also has those similar brain freezes, pauses.
There is no bewilderment on my friend's face as he fights for the words, not wide-eyed like Pelosi. It is as if he just does not know that he is different, less fluent.
Biden thinks he is firing on all cylinders and his handlers can't / won't tell him otherwise. If he is on the ballot in November, he will be incapacitated when we vote.
"If he is on the ballot in November, he will be incapacitated when we vote."
I can't see how the Democrats can discard Biden now. I am sceptical that the convention will even happen, but, without that, where is their mechanism for chucking him overboard? Instead, their plan has to be to get him elected, using the votes of as many "undocumented" Californians, undead Chicagoans and completely non-existent Georgians as it takes to get the job done. After which, he can be shunted aside and replaced with his VP.
A year from now, the United States could suddenly find it had Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or Stacey Abrams as President, depending on which PC lady gets the nod for the running-mate - in the full knowledge that Biden, if victorious, has no chance of completing a term.
Scary. He would have to survive until inauguration day. I wonder if the Veep takes over if the prez-elect fails to sign on the dotted line. Perhaps Pelosi gets a go...
Trump will be as indelicate as he needs to be (usually more so) in pointing out that voters will need to consider Biden's veep as president for the next two, six, ten years. If he hasn't had a stroke (or a series of TIAs), he's doing a pretty good impression of one who has. Stacy Abrams may be the reincarnation of Abe Lincoln, but she would do well to actually win an election outside the Georgia 89th rather than pretend she did. Both Kamala and Lieawatha had their chances to wow voters in the primaries, and failed. If Warren ran, her replacement in the Senate would be appointed by a Republican (INO) governor, imperiling the balance of power. As a woman of color [checks style manual to confirm PC usage], Kamala checks two boxes so important to Democrat grievance mongers. And if Biden tried to lay a finger on (or in) her, no doubt she could crumple him with an uppercut to the solar plexus. But President Harris? Is that all there is? No, but...I don't think you're going to like the alternative--I know I don't. She's pale, she's restless, and she's still ready--and she garnered 66 million votes in 2016. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the next President of the United States--GAH!!!! I just had the worst nightmare!
Stacey Abrams is the reincarnation of Cleopatra VII - and Cleopatra didn't do elections.
A good friend of mine, regrettably liberal (in the American sense) on most matters, would happily re-introduce the death penalty for Morris dancers.
Will Biden have an accident? Another stroke?
Depends on how busy Hillary is. I'm sure she can work him into her schedule.
How about the usual Clinton thing: two self-inflicted bullets to the back of the head?
"Joe, come and rub noses!" said the preying mantis.
It's possible, Owen.
The Scalia Wet Works model is another option.
"Another stroke?" you ask, P. It would be only a little one. To have a serious stroke, you need a bigger brain.
That made me chortle, Segnes!
Thanks, P. For my part, got a huge kick out of your crack about the praying mantis. That is exactly how it will be: he'll be choosing his praying mantis when he chooses his running mate. How to accomplish the killing, though? Biting his head off will cause only mild bleeding. And how to tell when he's finally dead?
These Brit wanker coppers remind me of the Barney Fife character who stopped a 4th of July parade in your state, Mark.
Right. What we need now is the Gomer Pyle character who made the "Citizens Arrest!!, Citizens Arrest!!" on Officer Fife, as he made an illegal U-turn in downtown Mayberry.