As readers and listeners and viewers know, for a fortnight or so I've been tracking the death toll of the Chinese coronavirus in Italy: When I first mentioned it on television, just over a week ago, the cumulative fatalities were about 1,200. Now it's near 5,000, and the daily deaths have accelerated - 200 per diem, 250, 350, 475... Today, the grim toll of the last 24 hours hit a new record of just under 800. A national tragedy is befalling Italy.
As I said on yesterday's Clubland Q&A, we are going to try to walk a delicate balance in the weeks ahead: We'll bring you up to speed on what's happening on the Kung Flu fighting, but we'll also continue to provide some welcome escapism from the wretched headlines, such as Kathy Shaidle on The Rocky Horror Picture Show or Carol, Russell and the band with a rollicking freewheeling Song of the Week.
I'm not sure whether this next offering falls into the wretched headline or escapist entertainment category - probably a foot in both camps - but it's the thirty-fifth audio adventure in our popular series Tales for Our Time, and this tale couldn't be timelier. Daniel Defoe is best known as the author of Robinson Crusoe (1719) and Moll Flanders (1722), but between those two enduring bestsellers he wrote a third classic: A Journal of the Plague Year - as in the Great Plague of London:
It was about the beginning of September, 1664, that I, among the rest of my neighbours, heard in ordinary discourse that the plague was returned again in Holland...
We had no such thing as printed newspapers in those days to spread rumours and reports of things, and to improve them by the invention of men, as I have lived to see practised since. But such things as these were gathered from the letters of merchants and others who corresponded abroad, and from them was handed about by word of mouth only; so that things did not spread instantly over the whole nation, as they do now. But it seems that the Government had a true account of it, and several councils were held about ways to prevent its coming over; but all was kept very private. Hence it was that this rumour died off again, and people began to forget it as a thing we were very little concerned in, and that we hoped was not true; till the latter end of November or the beginning of December 1664 when two men, said to be Frenchmen, died of the plague in Long Acre, or rather at the upper end of Drury Lane.
The family they were in endeavoured to conceal it as much as possible, but as it had gotten some vent in the discourse of the neighbourhood, the Secretaries of State got knowledge of it; and concerning themselves to inquire about it, in order to be certain of the truth, two physicians and a surgeon were ordered to go to the house and make inspection. This they did; and finding evident tokens of the sickness upon both the bodies that were dead, they gave their opinions publicly that they died of the plague. Whereupon it was given in to the parish clerk, and he also returned them to the Hall; and it was printed in the weekly bill of mortality in the usual manner, thus—
Plague, 2.
Parishes infected, 1.
And so it begins. As I say in my introduction, A Journal of the Plague Year is a reminder that not much has changed in the three and a half centuries between their contagion and ours. The remedies are the same - "social distancing" and self-quarantine. The emergency measures are also similar: In 2020 no March Madness; in 1665 no bear-baiting. The one great imponderable for the difficult months ahead is whether the disposition of the people is as it was.
At any rate, if you're sick of watching Gwyneth Paltrow, Jude Law et al in Contagion for the umpteenth time, and you're minded to take a longer view of the topic, this is a unique literary tour de force that retains its power even after three centuries. To hear A Journal of the Plague Year, prefaced by my own introduction to Daniel Defoe's tale, Mark Steyn Club members should please click here and log-in.
If the charms of 24-hour quarantine with premium cable are already beginning to chafe, we're pleased to offer an alternative: well over two years' worth of my audio adaptations of classic fiction starting with Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's cracking tale of an early conflict between jihadists and westerners in The Tragedy of the Korosko. To access them all, please see our easy-to-navigate Netflix-style Tales for Our Time home page. We've introduced a similar tile format for my Sunday Poems and also for our audio and video music specials.
We launched The Mark Steyn Club over two-and-a-half years ago, and I'm overwhelmed by all those members across the globe who've signed up to be a part of it - from Fargo to Fiji, Vancouver to Vanuatu, Cook County to the Cook Islands, West Virginia to the West Midlands. As I said at the time, membership isn't for everyone, but it is a way of ensuring that all our content remains available for everyone.
That said, we are offering our Club members a few extras, including our monthly audio adventures by Dickens, Conrad, Kafka, Gogol, H G Wells, Baroness Orczy, Jack London, Scott Fitzgerald, Robert Louis Stevenson - plus a piece of non-classic fiction by yours truly. You can find them all here. We're very pleased by the response to our Tales - and we even do them live on our annual Mark Steyn Cruise, and sometimes with special guests. In the event we survive the present zombie apocalypse, we'll be presenting another Tale for Our Time along with live editions of The Mark Steyn Show and much more on our third annual cruise.
I'm truly thrilled that one of the most popular of our Steyn Club extras these last two years has been our nightly radio serials. If you've enjoyed them and you're looking for a present for a fellow fan of classic fiction, I hope you'll consider our special Club Gift Membership. Aside from Tales for Our Time, The Mark Steyn Club does come with other benefits:
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To become a member of The Mark Steyn Club, please click here - and don't forget that special Gift Membership. As soon as you join, you'll get access not only to A Journal of the Plague Year but to all the other yarns gathered together at the Tales for Our Time home page.
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36 Member Comments
Please identify the music that accompanies the readings. Thanks.
Gerry Bresy
Mark replies:
Hi, Gerry, I answer your question here.
One of the most interesting under-reported - actually, unreported, as far as I know - aspects to come to of this is the state of Emergency Rooms throughout parts of the country that have been largely unaffected by the virus.
They are mostly empty.
I know this is true based on anecdotes from a few doctors and nurses for ERs in Indiana outside of Indianapolis, and for ERs in southern California below Orange County. I suspect it is probably true for other areas that have been mostly free of viral calamity. As I understand things, the usual hangnail patients are deciding to handle it using clippers to avoid risk of exposure. An intrepid investigative reporter tired of doom-mongering might want to look at this more deeply.
It suggests that the current decadence, which is responsible for treating a bad flu as the Bubonic plague, is with us also during normal times, when people abuse the ER for minor complaints that in years past might have earned a few hours rest at home. It further suggests that in the absence of a global pan(dem)ic, we are actually over-invested in emergency medicine in many parts of the country.
The horrors of the mass graves depicted in Episode 8 are familiar to those of us who viewed the mid 20th century pictures courtesy of the Third Reich. Pray let us be rid of Chicom Covid 19, communism and, if a merciful God is able, antisemitism.
Mark,
Thank you for this story. Apt, timely and well read of course.
And the music you have picked: perfect. What, pray tell, is it?
I'm guessing that my point about the inevitable spread of Corona in our grocery stores will drawn the obvious common sense solution - home delivery of all groceries. No grocery store already setup for this can possibly provide this service at present for ALL of it's customers. But this is both doable and necessary with assistance from the National Guard and the Army not to mention another army of volunteers who have nothing to do at present. Trump has surely already thought of this so I expects action on this very soon. He can start by pulling our 30,000 troops out of Germany - a country that despises America and especially our President.
I have suggested that we nationalize Amazon, charging Bezos $10bn for the privilege.
It can redeem itself of the dreadful carnage that its predatory pricing model has wrought on the USA.
Then we can ensure that every household gets a roll of toilet paper a week.
Surely by now people have enough?
Back in the 2005/2006 period it was brought out that a lot of the pet food being sold in America was sourced from China, or brought into America as Canadian or Mexican but was relabeled Chinese material.
It was deadly to tens of thousands of America dogs and cat. The pet food poisoned them.
There was also baby food, made in China and deadly to South American infants. baby food poisoning infants.
When confronted the Chinese government said whoops! my bad.
President Bush the Younger (excuse me while I spit on the ground) and other worthless leaders, sorry my bad, world leaders told the Chinese to knock it off or they were going to write a sternly worded letter.
Since then I haven't knowingly fed my pets anything I even think may be from China or buy any food for myself or my family made it China.
Yet to my horror I find every pill, every vitamin, every medicine I take is made in a country that is dedicated to the destruction of the United States.
And what's worse is that every member of the deep state, every congressman, every senator and every president up to President Trump, has been just fine with that.
As long as they get their stinking thirty pieces of silver anything China does gets a pass.
This isn't about criticism of the 'everyone stay home' policies now in place but just facing reality with dealing with a pandemic with an R0 of 2.2 compared with say the H1N1 (Swine flu) at 1.46. Very easy to explain the rate of spread - start with a base of 10 infected and simply run the numbers. Swine flu the 10 infect 14.6 which infect 21 and 31 on the 3rd cycle of transmission. For Corona it's 10 infecting 22 which then infect 48 finally 106 on the 3rd cycle. Just basic middle school math folks so why haven't I seen even one media outlet print or broadcast - including Fox news, the CDC or the NIH? explain this? Don't panic the public is the obvious answer. Same reason less than 1% of the public understands that a carrier spews out the virus with every breath - no coughing or sneezing necessary. I checked the numbers on how many Americans grocery shop on any given day - 32 million with an average time spent 43 minutes. This is now the primary vector for spreading this highly contagious disease. Isolating the public as much as possible will certainly lower the effective R-naught of Corona to perhaps under 1.4 or even less but it will not stop the spread any time soon. The throngs packing your local Groceries every day guarantee this - just a slower spread than initially before the lock down. In our groceries though the R0 of 2.2 will likely hold in those densely populated urban areas already in deep trouble.
I have been enjoying the free Hillsdale College courses and some selections from Tales From Our Times. Yesterday, To Build a Fire and today I'll listen to A Klondike Christmas. Between those two sites and Prime I'm set for the duration!
Mark, thanks for this reading. This is a great choice of book. Another illustration of "plus ca change..." And of course that those who forget history are at the very least going to be very surprised when it happens again. I hope this time the civilised world heeds your warnings about reducing our openness to threats from abroad in all their forms.
On a positive note, there is an article at Townhall this morning that explains why the reported COVID-19 death toll in Italy is probably vastly overstated. Hope it's true. It also makes clear the fact of the European demographic death spiral that Mark has so often pointed out. I did not know Italy has the second oldest population of any country in the world. I don't know which country is first but I imagine it is also European. The big, boisterous Italian family is indeed a thing of the past. No more big, fat Greek or any other kind of weddings.
Japan is #1, but I suspect China was well on the way up, following the One-Child policy and the purges under Mao, until they wiped out a few million wrinklies these last 3 months.
Todd, I think Japan can claim first place; I've heard that it sells more nappies (diapers) for geriatrics than it does for babies.
Interestingly, it is Japan. 27% of its population is over 65 years of age, compared to Italy in the number two spot at 23%. Spain, arguably the second-worse hit country in Europe, is down at 14th overall, with 19% of its population over 65.
Whenever some Leftist remarks about how countries with some form of nationalized health care system - or state-subsidized "affordable" health insurance - have higher life expectancies than the United States - making the point that there is some link between that kind of health care coverage and the citizens of those countries living longer, healthier lives - I always think to myself, no, they just have fewer children, which increases their median age of death. That's what the life expectancy statistic actually means - so the smaller the percentage of people under 18 in a nation, the smaller their percentage will be among annual deaths. Which is why Japan ranks first among major nations - I think Monaco is actually #1 - in life expectancy - the Japanese have the fewest children to lower the median age of dying.
Not so surprising a coincidence given where most people's attention is currently directed, but I had just begun to read the same book a couple of days ago. Now I can put it aside and listen to Mark reading it, while I get on with the long-term task of "de-cluttering" my stuff; the fact that I am fast running out of excuses for deferring this is, for my wife, the one silver lining to the COVID-19 cloud. Thanks again, Mark, not least for the Introduction. (I was fortunate enough to see Alex Kingston and Ralph Fiennes when both were students at RADA, its then Vanbrugh Theatre Club promising "tomorrow's stars today". Happier times.)
I was in the middle of a scintillating slapshot (hello, Danny Gallivan) of a post when suddenly the Russians took over the internet and booted me back to the main screen -- two minutes, interference! So, here goes, again.
Ahem. (Checks notes.) The coronavirus is an introvert's dream. Here's a gift From Me to You (if there's anything that you want) from the Province of Prince Edward Island Canada, which now has two cases and which survived a run on the liquor stores when the Province announced it was shutting them down the next day. Long lines of socially-distance-challenged drinkers! The rural Agency stores are still open, so this will be a stealth way of spreading any virus on the loose from the Big City of Charlottetown (pop. 35,000) to the rural areas.
Where was I? The Gift: https://www.princeedwardisland.ca/sites/default/files/publications/covid19doorknocker.pdf
Introverts, enjoy!
Speaking as an introvert and a germophobe, I've been wondering what all the fuss is about.
Thanks for the sign, by the way. Should be just the thing for when the hoards arrive.
If you go to the Gov't of Canada Coronavirus Update page, there's a click-button for Chinese. Isn't that, you know, racissst?? https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html
When social distancing has been mastered, will we focus on antisocial distancing or have we already mastered it? Plus, with all the sports shut down, maybe you could do something on your cruise that's the latest craze: Marble Racing.
I used to scoff at the idea of collecting Facebook friends but perhaps it's the way forward.
Rocky Horror? Really Mark? Bleach.
Better left for dead.
Brilliant and timely as ever. Trump holding a presser in 1667 (covering 1665-67 plague, fire, Dutch) could be a hilarious skit for your cruise. Thanks for being there for us on Rush and on SteynOnline. Please be safe.
Hi Mark,
If we can't stop thinking about the crisis, perhaps we need a positive spin on some aspects of it, such as the lockdown/work from home rules.
How about "A World of Our Own" by the Seekers as your next Song of the Week?
Hey Mark, you old demographics bore, how many Italians die in any given month? And you're still flogging your cruise? Are you feeling ok?
GK,
I'll respond and save Mark the trouble, though I really should know better.
Typically about 30,000 people die in Italy every month, or about 1,000 people a day. Deaths from Coronavirus are about to surpass that rate, and are still increasing exponentially. So you now have a doubling of the typical death rate, with worse yet to come.
Hopefully you have enough sense to see the problem here.
Regards,
GJC.
I've read very credible reports that 99% of the covid deaths in Italy were of people 79 and older, most with other serious health conditions. How many of them would have died anyway in your per day count? So, it's not a doubling of the death rate. And "increasing exponentially" is scare language. Exponentially with what exponent?Problem in Italy, yes. Grounds for total societal shutdown in the US? Ridiculous, hysterical panic. A few travel bans, as has been done before, would have been sufficient.
GLC: I do believe - I might be wrong - that Mr. Kennedy was being "jocular-insulting," in a friendly/gallows humor sort of way. And thank you for taking the trouble to clarify the stats. Finally, and I'm no math whiz, but if the current death rate in Italy is actually "exponential," no one in the country would be alive by the end of April 2020, if not sooner.
In a country where everyone lives to be 80, the normal death rate would be 1.25% of the population during a year.
Suppose that in a country of 60 million, 70% are infected over the course of a year.
That would be 42 million at an average rate of some 800,000 a week.
The stats indicate that something like 4-5% of those infected need hospital treatment, with some requiring intensive care.
So, 30-40,000 going into hospital every week. If it takes two weeks to treat them, 60-80,000 beds occupied, with maybe 30,000 requiring intensive care.
The hospitals don't have the capacity, so you get a mortality rate of up to 5% of those infected, or 3.5% of the population.
This is why every European country is now making frantic efforts to halt the spread of coronavirus..
Wow, something other than the muffin man on Drury Lane. I will start this tale with foreboding.
"Defoe died in poverty, and [his] grave was marked with a simple headstone. In the winter of 1857/8 – at a time when the burial ground was closed and neglected – the grave was struck by lightning and the headstone broken."
Now, THAT'S literary criticism.
(There's many an author I would like to see get the chair for yapping on and on while page 300 in his/her book is now in the rearview mirror.)
[Quote, Wikipedia Profile 03/22/20).
The plague analogy works to some degree, and it seems MS likes it. Yet the plague MS cites was caused by a bacterium and transmitted by rats. In effect, it could be more easily vanquished. Get rid of the rats. And get rid of the food remnants that attract them -- something that became easier and easier as people began to starve and ate everything (no garbage), head to the hills (literally) and die when the plague spread.
Nevertheless, reading that anyone would view "Contagion" for insight is worrying. Here are some recommendations for those who need something to help them buck up: "Dawn Patrol" (1938); "Only Angels Have Wings" (1939); "36 Hours" (1964); "Twelve O'Clock High" (1947) and its 'twin' "Command Decision" (1949). Fiction -- yes, mostly, but if we ever needed life to imitate art that profiles courage, it's now.
Addendum from a shame-faced writer (anger and clear thinking don't mix): The flea carriers were omitted from the entry on plague. Rats (and about 200 other rodents) are the reservoir/carriers for the bacterium. Most transmission to humans is via flea bites. (Someone might know what John Donne was writing about in 'The Flea' -- it may or may not have been the plague...one of the worst poems about insects, ever.)
It was the Great Fire of London in 1666 that largely eliminated the plague in the city. "[The] 1667 Rebuilding Act [mandated] that all houses or buildings, whether great or small, were to be built only in brick or stone – if new houses were built of other materials they would be pulled down, meaning no more building with wood and thatch."
"If we only had hit the flea carriers [out to sea; not berthed at Pearl Harbor on 12/07/41], we would have been up to scratch and won the war." Admiral Tomonori Hava-Nagila, Japanese Naval High Command, Rowboat #5, POW Quonset Hut #19 (YokoOnoHama, 1946).
Also, from what I read someplace, the onset of the Little Ice Age. In the colder climate, the brown rat was replaced by the black, or Norway, rat as the resident rodent in Northern European cities. The Norway rat proved to be a less hospitable host to the flea that carried the bubonic bacillus.