On October 30, 2020 at 4:01 pm, Todd Williamson wrote:
There is no shortage of opinions about how are the election is going to turn out; I think most of these opinions are based on somewhat overly tedious, somewhat clumsy data that is just not reliable.
My approach is to look at what happened in 2016 and extrapolate to today. I can't imagine Trump losing a significant amount of his voters from last cycle and indeed I think he will pick up a few percentage points from conservatives who were previously not willing to take a chance on an unknown. On the other hand, I find it impossible to believe that Biden is going to bring out more voters than Hillary( who had the advantage of potentially becoming the first woman president, has the Clinton name and the vast Clinton political machine).
So, on balance, I think Trump will win by a bigger margin this time.....hopefully more than the Dems' ability to cheat. Fingers crossed!
On October 30, 2020 at 4:03 pm, Douglas Neviera wrote:
Could you please talk about which "swing state" worries you the most that you believe Trump needs to win on election night.
As for my prediction, to the disagreement of most I know (I am a college student), I believe Trump will win and the red wave will crash into the shores of the Great Lakes this election cycle. I believe energy is everything--and that's what Trump has. Trump will take FL, NC, PA,OH, MI, WI, and MN in addition to the perceived "swing states" of GA and AZ. The end tally will be 315-223.
But Mark, will the Steyn Club count the extra 100,000 votes that turn up in PA on November, 4? Anyways, I think Americans recognize that Trump's rhetoric may be distasteful but that it is far better than the alternative. The Black Lives Matter Riots bolstered this view. Americans do not want their communities to turn into Portland or now even Philadelphia. They recognize that, should the New Democrat Party take power, they could become the next McCloskey family with the government coming after them for daring to stand up to the mob. I think the Republicans will end up with 54 Senate seats--including a surprise victory for John James in Michigan. In the House, in think Democrats will remain in control, all be it with a smaller majority winning the house 230-205.
My final prediction prediction is that the left and main stream media will continue to subvert the Trump presidency but this time around Trump will do better because he has been though it before and that he does not have someone like Paul Ryan in his ear. November, 3 will be a day that we do not soon forget--energy is everything! How do you feel about my predictions?
On October 30, 2020 at 4:04 pm, Ray Winchester wrote:
1. Electoral college 380 - 158 Trump
2. Congress 235 - 200 Republican
3. Senate 60 - 40 Republican
4. Boris to stand down in February 2021. Rishi Sunak will take over if he has tainted himself to bad with WuFlu.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:05 pm, Scott Schertzer wrote:
For the first time in a long while I am feeling confident that President Trump will be reelected. With the exception of most of the "reputable" pollsters all signs point to Trump. He's campaigning like the Tasmanian Devil in front of large crowds at every event. Republicans have registered more new voters in the all important swing states. Early voting doesn't seem to be going the way the Democrats had expected. Joe Biden is going to "true blue" Minnesota for one of his rare forays out of his dungeon. All these things considered I find it hard to believe that Biden can be up 8 points.
Have the polling organizations become just as dishonest as the mainstream media, or am I seeing this election through rose colored glasses?
On October 30, 2020 at 4:06 pm, AlyM wrote:
Do the candidates have their own internal polling the public is not privvy to? I'm wondering if we can glean anything from their campaigning during these last few days - where they choose to go, their stump speeches, demeanor, etc. Joe "walking Dead" Biden seems to have only one gear - neutral - so it's difficult to decipher any clues. Harris, et al seem outwardly confident, perhaps secure in the knowledge that the old Democrat machine will come through for them once again, Mayor Daly-style! I hope not. Thanks, and Happy Halloween!
On October 30, 2020 at 4:08 pm, Drew Weber wrote:
Mark, Pelosi said Trump should "stand up like a man and accept the results of an election of the American people". Seems this is a higher bar than that for women such as Hillary or herself who have failed to accept the results of the 2016 election. At least Madame Speaker used the un-woke term "man".
On October 30, 2020 at 4:08 pm, Diane M Calabrese wrote:
A) President, electoral votes: Trump 322, Biden 216
B) Senate: Republicans 55 seats, Democrats 45 seats
C) House: Republicans 221 seats, Democrats 214 seats
D) Other: Trump wins the popular vote and the electoral vote.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:09 pm, Robert Fox wrote:
Why hasn't Trump hammered the immigration theme in this year's campaign like he did 4 years ago?
On October 30, 2020 at 4:10 pm, Holly wrote:
Mark, you have said that China is in control of the world, but I wonder if that is about to change. Multiple natural disasters, (flooding, earthquakes, hail, locusts) resulting in food shortages on top of the toll from the virus on their own people, their inability to exploit technology after they have stolen it (SMIC, Huawei), which will soon affect their military, push back from Australia, India and the U. S. among others. Being the optimist you are, do you think China's global ambitions are failing?
On October 30, 2020 at 4:11 pm, Benjamin Bumgardner wrote:
I think by Tuesday night the Democrats and their minions will be in full riot mood before the evening is over. Not counting Portland and Seattle which are in perpetual state of riot. The pot is boiling and the lid will soon blow. Do you think we will see the kind of riots like the late sixties with wide scale destruction and violence and when do you think the average voter who doesn't riot will finally step up to face the enemy which most definitely mean the Chinese also?
On October 30, 2020 at 4:12 pm, Elisa Angel wrote:
a) the Electoral College results -- 289 Trump, 248 Biden;
b) the overall Senate score -- 53 seats GOP, 47 Dems;
c) the House of Representatives -- 195 GOP, 240 Dems; and
d) one other genius prediction that never occurred to [Mark] -- Nancy Pelosi's face looking like she has "ice cream brain freeze" becomes a permanent condition when the Dems push her out as speaker.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:13 pm, Midwestern Tim wrote:
A.) Electoral college: Trump 342, Biden 129
B.) Senate: 55 republicans, 45 democrats
C.) House: 220 republicans, 214 democrats, 1 libertarian
D. Popular vote: Trump will win by 10%
You can make the gift card out to Tim Boggs. Thanks.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:14 pm, Paul Harmon wrote:
Former Vice President Biden is running as a reassuring moderate, a man of good character who can reunite the country, the anti-Donald Trump who won't trash norms. He has been the perfect Democratic nominee to appeal to women tired of polarized politics.
But how is it possible that a large portion of the electorate sees polarization as the big problem? Coexisting with some who want you dead is not possible, and the leftists want big demographic blocks to just... disappear. Just like Mao did with the traditional Chinese, just like Xi is doing with the Uighurs and the Christians in China, just like Stalin with his Kulaks.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:15 pm, Sergei wrote:
I don't have a question, I'd just like you to say Kamala a few times in a very racist way.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:16 pm, Michelle Dulak wrote:
Anything to say about Chris White's suggestion that all composers ought to be "full-named"? I am not in the loop myself; I use last names only for people like Marini, Uccellini, Rovetta, Cesti, Tunder, Boismortier, Farrenc, &c., and use first names only to disambiguate. But apparently the divide is between "Mozart and Beethoven" and people whose names are so obscure that your first search results for them are suggestions that they might be in prison.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:18 pm, Kerry Kerstetter wrote:
With so many early votes, the anticipated large Election Day turnout, plus the Post-11/3 harvested and mysteriously found ballots, what do you think the chances are that the total votes cast will be more like 150% of registered voters? It's happened before in spots around the country; but this year threatens to be the largest volume of cheating ever.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:20 pm, Christopher Gelber wrote:
Mark, how worried are you about mail-in fraud? The Dems have had literally months now to set up mail-in voting fraud on a truly epic scale, and all they need to do is drop a few tens of thousands here, a few more there, in close and swing states. And this is all before they magically "find" boxes hither and yon if and as they need to. But I hear very little real analysis of how dangerous this is.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:21 pm, Chris Hall wrote:
Electoral college: R 319, D 219 (but you've got to drag NH over the line)
Senate: R 52, D 48
On October 30, 2020 at 4:23 pm, Richard Malaby wrote:
Hi Mark - as always, love the Club!
Five years ago, I never imaged a world where I'd cheerfully vote for Donald Trump. Your "Notes on a Phenomenon" column was the first time I'd considered that he could be competitive in a general election, and when he won our state of New Hampshire, (admittedly, I voted for "Little Marco"), that was when I realized he could win the whole thing. The Smart Conservatives - Bill Kristol, Jonah Goldberg, etc - seem to demand we resist Trump because he's not William F Buckley reincarnate. I don't live in that world, and neither does 80%+ of this country; we get two options and we have to pick the lesser evil. My primary motivation four years ago was to elect a president who would allow the economy to grow so my small business owning parents could retire. As such, I voted for Trump. As Lee Corso says on College Gameday, great pick!
This election season, I've noticed a trend: women who either voted for Hillary or did not vote last go-round are supporting Trump. My proof is exclusively anecdotal and the sample size is small, but I know, have read, or heard a number of women who didn't care for Trump in 2016 but have come around both because he actually sets out to do what he says and because the other side is so hateful it can't help itself. We're told that Trump is doing terribly with women, but my hunch is these are the same women who hated him in 2016. When Trump's on the stump, it's like watching a stand-up with no set list. When he's interviewed by someone friendly, he sounds like a decent enough guy. When he's unfairly challenged by an adversary, only then is that when he spits bile. Which, in my book, makes him a normal person. I thought Trump would win last time, and I think we're looking at four more years.
Always dangerous to put things in writing, but from my keyboard to your ears:
A) Electoral College: 310-228 Trump
B) Senate: 51-49 GOP
C) House: 233-202 Dem
D) Two bold predictions: John James wins in MI, and one of either Joni Ernst or Thom Tillis wins to keep the Senate in GOP hands. Sorry, Gardner, McSally and Susan Collins. Also, going to go out on a limb and say Trump keeps California within 12 points. That's still a lot of votes among 20M registered voters, but even though it won't be competitive, Trump has done a real service by expanding the GOP's marketing. He's Made Republicans Cool Again.
I hope it doesn't end in four days - Trump's presidency or my career as a prognosticator!
On October 30, 2020 at 4:26 pm, Gareth Roberts wrote:
Is it time to throw Turkey out of Nato?
On October 30, 2020 at 4:28 pm, SabreMike Carroll wrote:
Why did people in the UK have big rallies to support an American political movement purportedly launched in response to police brutality but have no problem with their own police busting into their homes and arresting granny for violating social distancing orders at Christmas dinner? Apparently they don't think their own lives matter.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:29 pm, Ian W wrote:
I will play.
334 electoral votes for Republicans. 204 for Democrats.
Republicans wind up with 52 seats in the Senate.
House: 206 Republican vs 205 Democrat.
51% popular vote Republican
On October 30, 2020 at 4:30 pm, Nicola Timmerman wrote:
I think Trump is going to win but wondering why the Las Vegas odds are still in favour of Biden, albeit not by much. -105 Trump and plus 120 Biden. This is real money, not polls.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:31 pm, Calvert Whitehurst wrote:
Oh, alright. I would rather be a pessimist and be proven wrong, so here goes. Trump does not repeat his 2016 hat trick - he carries MI, but loses PA and WI, and ends up losing the Electoral vote to Biden 275-263. Not much change in the Congress - 1 seat pickup for the Dems in the Senate, but the Republicans keep a 52-48 majority. Two-seat Democratic pickup in the House - final count 234-201 Democratic majority.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:33 pm, Terry wrote:
Proposition 16 in California sees institutional liberalism seeking to get a direct democracy mandate from the people to institutionalise sexist and racist discrimination against selected parts of the demos, the people. Will not the result of this vote tell us far more about the 'silent majority' than the Presidential vote?
Terry in the UK
On October 30, 2020 at 4:35 pm, Mike wrote:
You have suggested many times that conservatives need more media companies. Whenever Trump leaves office, isn't that an obvious next step for him - the Trump Channel on SiriusXM . . . Trump News Channel on cable, etc? It is a guaranteed fortune, every GOP politician would scramble for appearances on it, and he will need a new outlet because you know Twitter will ban him the moment he leaves office.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:37 pm, Larry Davis wrote:
As a conservative and a strong believer in free speech you are very important to me . Your writing and television appearances keep me sane . Question? Do you ever fear for your safety and the safety of your loved ones ? I rarely speak out these days. I am not really afraid but those I deal with on the other side are really quite unhinged. How do you cope? PS I'm originally from Arkansas
On October 30, 2020 at 4:38 pm, Margie CT wrote:
Hi Mark, if Trump wins and China loses, do you think we will finally be able to say Wuhan Flu, RIP and get on with our lives?
On October 30, 2020 at 4:40 pm, Pierre Loomis wrote:
Anymore news on Tucker's stolen UPS overnight package?
On October 30, 2020 at 4:42 pm, Fran Lavery Â wrote:
I'll stick my neck out on a limb hanging over the Grand Canyon but I'll predict that President Trump will win Both the Electoral College and the popular vote and there will be about 701 extra votes found in some boxes in the county clerks truck after the polls close for Xchitl (pronounce that one!) Small-Torres (D) in the So. New Mexico US Congressional race against Yvette Herrell (R) after Yvette pulls ahead by 700 votes at close of Election Day. Republicans lose the House and lose the Senate.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:43 pm, Robert Fox wrote:
Re David Hagen's comment about the dependent class. I thought it was interesting this summer when U.S. cities were being burned to the ground by mobs from the dependent classes, these groups were calling for defunding the police but it never occurred to them that the non-dependent classes might want a defunding of the sources of public financing for the dependent classes.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:46 pm, Jessica Bonner wrote:
What's your comment on the NBC news article that claims the Hunter documents "appears to be the work of a fake 'intelligence firm' called Typhoon Investigations, according to researchers and public documents?" They also said that a fake persona with a profile picture generated by artificial intelligence is behind this. How do they get away with blatant insanity? How can we keep media accountable in America?
On October 30, 2020 at 4:47 pm, Walt Trimmer wrote:
I'm filing suit in Federal Court to extend my election prediction deadlines to Nov. 8. I am sending the documents via overnight express delivery.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:48 pm, Jan Schieboutl wrote:
The Tucker expose of the Biden corruption leaves me wondering if this is another head fake. Are we really to believe that original documents and phones were sent via commercial carrier only to mysteriously disappear en route? No copies, no digital records no Bond Escorted multiple copies in other secret locations exist? You've got to be kidding me!
On October 30, 2020 at 4:49 pm, Fritz Geiger wrote:
Commie thugs storm'll,
Looter scum swarm'll;
That's the new norm'll.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:50 pm, Benjamin Bumgardner wrote:
Electoral College Trump wins 277 to 261
Senate score Republicans 51 to Democrats 49
House Democrats 244 to Republicans 191
I predict that total US deaths in 2020 will be statistically limited to less than a five percent increase over total deaths in 2019.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:51 pm, Drew Weber wrote:
Mark, I commented a week ago and since then the Biden scandal continues to build. In 2016, celebrities urged the electors in the Electoral college to not cast their vote for Trump. By the time the Electoral College convenes this year, they could be facing a plausible, if not proven case of a thoroughly corrupt president-elect in Biden. A scenario the Founders contemplated when they established the Electoral College. I suppose unlikely, but If the electors do not deliver the 270+ votes, the only thing for certain might be that the Democrats heads would explode. However, to entertain a conspiracy theory, maybe this is all part of a diabolical scheme to avoid the mess of invoking the 25th amendment and go directly to a President Harris.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:51 pm, Toby Pilling wrote:
If Joe Biden's body is still intact but the mind has gone, should he be allowed to ride off into the sunset, strapped to his horse, El Cid like, if he achieves victory?
On October 30, 2020 at 4:52 pm, Perry Pattetic wrote:
Mark - Lord Sumption - an extant ex-Supreme! that's a novelty - declares that the UK is on the verge of being a totalitarian police state, using unlawful powers to coerce the people.
Len Deighton's SS-GB nailed this long ago - the British police have always been ready and willing to exercise their inner totality. Of course, back then it was policy that the Old Bill would do the Nazi's bidding upon invasion, but what's the excuse this time? A mis-applied Health Act.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:53 pm, Perry Pattetic wrote:
Mark, you might also want to comment on Mailchimp's sudden change to its Ts and Cs, enabling it to arbitrarily block emails - and lock down email accounts. Being "hosted" is all well and good, until you realize that your hostess ends up with the mostest of your content and can throw you out onto the street at a moment.
BTW, I recall Microsoft giving itself similar rights a while back - perhaps I'm wrong, but all folks on tMicrosoft's 365 platform should get reading the terms under which they operate. Best to buy a perpetual license and keep things local.
No need to burn books - in the digital world half the electorate will be unpublished, unbanked, uncredited, unknown in seconds. 666 and all that.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:54 pm, Steve Rudy wrote:
Re "enthusiasm gap",: It doesn't matter if Biden's votes are collected by this going door-to-door and mailbox-to-mailbox, etc. Please comment.
On October 30, 2020 at 4:56 pm, Al Man from CA wrote:
I predict I will over-serve myself on Tuesday night, hit the rack by 9:00 p.m. (Pacific) and look forward to Mark, Rush, and Tucker to explain the legal nightmare that follows in the coming weeks (months).
On October 30, 2020 at 5:06 pm, Michael Lindamood wrote:
Senate 45 Dems
House 198 Dems
On October 30, 2020 at 5:08 pm, Michael Lindamood wrote:
Trump has hijacked his campaign and is going with his instincts with the rallies.
On October 30, 2020 at 5:14 pm, Scott Schertzer wrote:
Electoral College: Trump 303 Biden 235
Senate: Republicans 53. Democrats 47
House: Democrats 225. Republicans 210
Genius Prediction:: We will know the winner of the presidential election before midnight on Tuesday,